Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Juticalpa vs Marathon

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas, Juticalpa
Our Tip

Match Events

53'
Perez C.
54'
Casildo L.
57'
Bodden K.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Juticalpa and Marathon finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marathon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Juticalpa
15%
Draws
65%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Marathon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Marathon are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Marathon here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Juticalpa Clean Sheet 11%
Marathon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juticalpa Marathon
Matches Played 29 36
Wins 5 16
Draws 7 10
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.9 1.31
Goals Conceded 2.31 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Marathon
0:4
Jan 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Juticalpa
3:0
Oct 4, 2025 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Marathon
1:3
Jul 27, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Juticalpa
7:0
Mar 6, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Juticalpa
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juticalpa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Messiniti N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juticalpa 10 / 100
Marathon 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juticalpa Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marathon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Juticalpa scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Marathon conceded in 53% of 36 recent games.

Recent resilience: Juticalpa stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Juticalpa VS Marathon
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Juticalpa

(Home)
14 Sept
Atletico Independiente
2 : 1
Juticalpa
07 Sept
Juticalpa
0 : 3
Genesis FC
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Estrella
5 : 2
Juticalpa
17 Aug
Olancho
1 : 0
Juticalpa
Page 1 of 6

Marathon

(Away)
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
29 Aug
Genesis FC
1 : 2
Marathon
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)