Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kagera Sugar vs Azam

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2024/2025 Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Lidah H.
42' Event
Mwaikenda L.
Assist: Suleiman A.
57' Event
Nado I.
Assist: Saadun N.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2024/2025 game between Kagera Sugar and Azam finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Azam.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Kagera Sugar
30%
Draws
64%
Azam
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Azam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Kagera Sugar haven't matched Azam's recent run of results.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Azam taking it.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Azam have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Kagera Sugar Clean Sheet 10%
Azam Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kagera Sugar Azam
Matches Played 32 38
Wins 5 26
Draws 10 9
Losses 17 3
Goals Scored 0.78 1.84
Goals Conceded 1.53 0.55
Expected Goals (xG) 0.72 2.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Azam
0:2
Apr 19, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Azam
2:4
Nov 23, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Kagera Sugar
1:0
May 25, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Kagera Sugar
5:1
Dec 21, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Azam
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kagera Sugar Compare

Top Goalscorer Lidah H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Feka K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.36

Azam Compare

Top Goalscorer Mwaikenda L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Nado I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.04
Avg xA / game 1.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kagera Sugar 10 / 100
Azam 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kagera Sugar Azam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Azam Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Kagera Sugar found the back of the net in 47% of recent matches (32 games).

Azam has conceded goals in 32% of their last 38 outings.

Solid form: Kagera Sugar remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kagera Sugar VS Azam
0.8 Goals Scored 1.88
2.6 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
40% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Kagera Sugar

(Home)
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
27 Aug
Mashujaa
2 : 1
Kagera Sugar
22 Aug
Geita Gold
6 : 2
Kagera Sugar
19 Aug
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Singida Black Stars
16 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Simba
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Azam

(Away)
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
28 Aug
Geita Gold
2 : 2
Azam
23 Aug
Azam
2 : 1
Pamba
20 Aug
Azam
2 : 1
TRA United
15 Aug
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 1
Azam
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 30 27 1 2 83:10 82
2 Simba 30 25 3 2 69:13 78
3 Azam 30 19 6 5 56:19 63
4 Singida Black Stars 30 17 6 7 45:26 57
5 TRA United 30 10 8 12 28:45 38
6 JKT Tanzania 30 8 12 10 27:27 36
7 Mashujaa 30 8 11 11 29:33 35
8 Coastal Union 30 8 11 11 26:31 35
9 Namungo 30 9 8 13 28:36 35
10 Kinondoni MC 30 9 8 13 26:43 35
11 Pamba 30 8 10 12 22:33 34
12 Dodoma Jiji 30 9 7 14 31:49 34
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 8 7 15 26:46 31
14 Fountain Gate 30 8 5 17 32:58 29
15 Kagera Sugar 30 5 8 17 22:41 23
16 KenGold 30 3 7 20 22:62 16
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2024/2025 (Relegation)