Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kagera Sugar vs Mbao

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Mwashiuya G.
31' Event
Mhilu Y.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 game between Kagera Sugar and Mbao finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kagera Sugar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Kagera Sugar
30%
Draws
58%
Mbao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mbao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Kagera Sugar haven't matched Mbao's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Mbao a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Kagera Sugar Clean Sheet 20%
Mbao Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kagera Sugar Mbao
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 8 4
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 0.87 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Mbao
2:0
Sep 21, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbao vs Kagera Sugar
0:1
May 28, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbao vs Kagera Sugar
1:1
Jan 2, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbao vs Kagera Sugar
0:0
Feb 4, 2018 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbao vs Kagera Sugar
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kagera Sugar Compare

Top Goalscorer Mwashiuya G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mhilu Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Mbao Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kagera Sugar 10 / 100
Mbao 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kagera Sugar Mbao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mbao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbao let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Kagera Sugar scored in 52% of their last 31 games.

Solid form: Kagera Sugar remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kagera Sugar VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kagera Sugar

(Home)
13 Sept
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Fountain Gate
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
27 Aug
Mashujaa
2 : 1
Kagera Sugar
22 Aug
Geita Gold
6 : 2
Kagera Sugar
19 Aug
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Singida Black Stars
Page 1 of 7

Mbao

(Away)
01 Aug
Mbao
4 : 2
Singida Black Stars
29 Jul
Singida Black Stars
2 : 0
Mbao
26 Jul
Mbao
2 : 0
Ndanda
22 Jul
Mbao
3 : 0
Namungo
19 Jul
JKT Tanzania
1 : 1
Mbao
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Simba 38 27 7 4 78:21 88
2 Young Africans 38 19 15 4 45:28 72
3 Azam 38 20 10 8 52:26 70
4 Namungo 38 17 13 8 46:37 64
5 Polisi Tanzania 38 15 10 13 37:35 55
6 JKT Tanzania 38 13 15 10 34:32 54
7 Coastal Union 38 14 11 13 33:30 53
8 Kagera Sugar 38 15 7 16 44:41 52
9 Biashara Mara United 38 12 14 12 29:27 50
10 Tanzania Prisons 38 10 19 9 35:30 49
11 Mwadui 38 12 11 15 39:45 47
12 Ruvu Shooting 38 12 11 15 34:42 47
13 Kinondoni MC 38 13 7 18 35:47 46
14 Mtibwa Sugar 38 11 12 15 30:34 45
15 Mbeya City 38 12 9 17 33:42 45
16 Mbao 38 12 9 17 33:43 45
17 Alliance 38 11 12 15 36:48 45
18 Lipuli 38 12 8 18 43:51 44
19 Ndanda 38 9 14 15 28:35 41
20 Singida United 38 4 6 28 23:73 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 (Relegation)