Sport Picks
Kairat Almaty vs Ertis Pavlodar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
Premier League Almaty Central Stadium, Almaty 
AI Match Summary
Kairat Almaty host Ertis Pavlodar in the Premier League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Kairat Almaty have averaged 1.68 scored and 0.94 conceded recently, against Ertis Pavlodar's 1 scored and 1.33 conceded. Head-to-head, Kairat Almaty have won 1 to Ertis Pavlodar's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.19, favoring Kairat Almaty. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Look at the last few games and Kairat Almaty come out ahead of Ertis Pavlodar on wins alone.
- Model gives Kairat Almaty a 43% chance of winning this.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kairat Almaty | Ertis Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 27 |
| Wins | 19 | 7 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.68 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.94 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ertis Pavlodar let in goals in 88% of their last 26 matches.
Attacking prowess: Kairat Almaty scored in 76% of their last 34 outings.
Kairat Almaty has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Kairat Almaty
(Home)Ertis Pavlodar
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Ertis Pavlodar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26:34 | 26 |
| 12 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26:40 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
