Sport Picks
Kairat Almaty vs Tobol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
Premier League Almaty Central Stadium, Almaty 
Match Events
18'
18'
Milovanovic U.
(Penalty)
28'
28'
Myakish M.
34'
34'
Sub
Kurgin L. In: Tuyakbaev A.
Out: Kurgin L.
AI Match Summary
Tobol in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tobol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kairat Almaty
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Kairat Almaty have won more games recently than Tobol.
- Model gives Tobol a 42% chance of winning this.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Kairat Almaty Clean Sheet 15%
Tobol Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kairat Almaty | Tobol |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 13 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.66 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs Tobol
1:4
Apr 11, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Kairat Almaty
1:1
Feb 28, 2026 Super Cup
Kairat Almaty vs Tobol
2:3
Jul 26, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Kairat Almaty
1:3
Apr 27, 2025 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs Tobol
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kairat Almaty Compare
Top Goalscorer Gual M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Tobol Compare
Top Goalscorer Milovanovic U.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lisakovich V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kairat Almaty 27 / 100
Tobol 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kairat Almaty Tobol
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tobol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tobol has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
Kairat Almaty scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Kairat Almaty went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Kairat Almaty VS Tobol
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Kairat Almaty
(Home) 17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0 Kairat Almaty
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4 Tobol
09 Sept
Kairat Almaty
3 : 0 Zhenis
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3 Kairat Almaty
31 Aug
Yelimay Semey
0 : 2 Kairat Almaty
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4 Tobol
09 Sept
Kairat Almaty
3 : 0 Zhenis
20 Aug
Kairat Almaty
0 : 3 Anderlecht
15 Aug
Kairat Almaty
3 : 1 Ulytau
11 Aug
Kairat Almaty
0 : 1 Levski Sofia
Page 1 of 3
Tobol
(Away) 10 Oct
Tobol
2 : 1 FC Astana
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2 Yelimay Semey
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4 Tobol
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1 Ulytau
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4 Tobol
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
06 Aug
Partizan
3 : 0 Tobol
02 Aug
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Tobol
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Kyzylzhar | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28:40 | 27 |
| 12 | Ertis Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26:36 | 26 |
| 13 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
