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Kalamata vs AEL Larissa

Greece Greece

Greek Cup 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Pamlidis G.
53' Event
Chakla S.
77' Event
Mourgos S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with AEL Larissa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Kalamata
15%
Draws
53%
AEL Larissa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AEL Larissa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kalamata come out ahead of AEL Larissa on wins alone.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on AEL Larissa taking it.
  • Kalamata have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AEL Larissa, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • AEL Larissa have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Kalamata Clean Sheet 20%
AEL Larissa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kalamata AEL Larissa
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 21 6
Draws 3 12
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 2 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.68 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.32 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 19, 2025 Greek Cup
Kalamata vs AEL Larissa
1:2
Dec 4, 2019 Greek Cup
AEL Larissa vs Kalamata
1:0
Oct 30, 2019 Greek Cup
Kalamata vs AEL Larissa
3:0
Feb 13, 2005 Football League
Kalamata vs AEL Larissa
0:2
Oct 3, 2004 Football League
AEL Larissa vs Kalamata
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kalamata Compare

Top Goalscorer Pamlidis G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.66

AEL Larissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Chakla S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mourgos S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kalamata 20 / 100
AEL Larissa 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kalamata AEL Larissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEL Larissa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Kalamata scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

AEL Larissa has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Kalamata stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kalamata VS AEL Larissa
1.14 Goals Scored 1.25
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.5
57% Over 1.5 88%
29% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kalamata

(Home)
29 Aug
Panetolikos
2 : 0
Kalamata
22 Aug
Kalamata
2 : 3
Aris
19 Aug
Kalamata
4 : 2
Panetolikos
12 Aug
Panionios
1 : 0
Kalamata
10 Aug
Volos
0 : 2
Kalamata
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AEL Larissa

(Away)
17 Aug
Athens Kallithea
1 : 3
AEL Larissa
11 Aug
AO Trikala
0 : 4
AEL Larissa
06 Aug
AEL Larissa
0 : 0
Zakynthos
21 May
Kifisia
3 : 2
AEL Larissa
16 May
AEL Larissa
2 : 1
Atromitos
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Giannina 0
Volos 4
Kavala 2
Panserraikos 1
Kampaniakos 0
Athens Kallithea 1
Ellas Syrou 1
Chrisoupolis 0
Kalamata 1
AEL Larissa 2
PAE Chania (Kissamikos) 0
Marko 1
Makedonikos Neapolis 1
Levadiakos 2
Karditsa 1
Kifisia 2
PAE Egaleo 2
Panargiakos 1
Panionios 1
Iraklis FC 2
Niki Volos 1
Panetolikos 2