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Stadium Background

Kalju U21 vs Tartu JK Welco

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Hiiu Stadium, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Mottus E.
Assist: Laasner K.
53' Event
Veensalu E.
Assist: Laasner K.
57' Event
Veensalu E.
Assist: Laasner K.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga game between Kalju U21 and Tartu JK Welco finished 1-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Kalju U21
6%
Draws
90%
Tartu JK Welco
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tartu JK Welco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Tartu JK Welco taking it.
  • Regular Esiliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tartu JK Welco have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Kalju U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kalju U21 Tartu JK Welco
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 17
Draws 5 6
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.63 3.63
Goals Conceded 2.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 3.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Kalju U21
4:2
Apr 11, 2026 Esiliiga
Kalju U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
1:5
Oct 23, 2025 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Kalju U21
5:2
Jul 19, 2025 Esiliiga
Kalju U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
0:3
Jun 19, 2025 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Kalju U21
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kalju U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Helmja V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Veensalu E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mottus E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.3
Avg xA / game 2.02

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kalju U21 10 / 100
Tartu JK Welco 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kalju U21 Tartu JK Welco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tartu JK Welco let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Kalju U21 scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Kalju U21 has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kalju U21 VS Tartu JK Welco
1.63 Goals Scored 3.63
2.63 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Kalju U21

(Home)
25 Jul
Kalju U21
0 : 5
Flora Tallinn U21
18 Jul
Kalju U21
0 : 2
Levadia U21
11 Jul
Viimsi JK
2 : 2
Kalju U21
05 Jul
Kalju U21
2 : 2
Elva
21 Jun
Tallinna Kalev
5 : 1
Kalju U21
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Tartu JK Welco

(Away)
23 Jul
Rumori Calcio II
0 : 12
Tartu JK Welco
18 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
0 : 2
FC Tallinn
13 Jul
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 8
Tartu JK Welco
02 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
2 : 2
Viimsi JK
21 Jun
Tartu JK Welco
5 : 2
Nomme Utd U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tartu JK Welco20143362:2645
2Viimsi JK20105534:1935
3Flora Tallinn U2120104651:3834
4Elva2093837:3330
5Levadia U2120901139:3527
6Maardu Linnameeskond2075830:4726
7Tallinna Kalev2074940:4025
8FC Tallinn20551027:4920
9Nomme Utd U2120551036:4820
10Kalju U2120541130:5119
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)