Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kalju vs Narva

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Hiiu Stadium, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Mannilaan M.
Assist: Borolinstsikov A.
20'
Campagna C.
37'
Mannilaan M.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Kalju and Narva finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kalju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Kalju
20%
Draws
20%
Narva
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kalju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Kalju carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 60% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Kalju here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Kalju Clean Sheet 16%
Narva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kalju Narva
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 2.03 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.16 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Narva
2:0
Aug 26, 2026 Estonian Cup
Narva vs Kalju
2:0
Aug 8, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Kalju
0:2
May 1, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Kalju
0:3
Apr 3, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Narva
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kalju Compare

Top Goalscorer Mannilaan M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jabir I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Narva Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kalju 30 / 100
Narva 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kalju Narva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kalju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kalju scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Narva has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Away concern: Narva has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kalju VS Narva
3.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kalju

(Home)
20 Sept
Tammeka Tartu
1 : 3
Kalju
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0
Narva
08 Sept
Kalju
1 : 2
Nomme Utd
05 Sept
Flora
2 : 1
Kalju
30 Aug
Kalju
2 : 3
Levadia
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Narva

(Away)
20 Sept
Narva
1 : 1
Levadia
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0
Narva
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2
Flora
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1
Narva
30 Aug
Narva
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)