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Karbala vs Al Gharraf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Karbala host Al Gharraf in the Stars League. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: Karbala at 0.79 goals for, 1.93 against; Al Gharraf at 0.9 for, 1.4 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.00 vs 1.00, favoring Al Gharraf. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Karbala
15%
Draws
21%
Al Gharraf
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Karbala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Karbala haven't matched Al Gharraf's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Karbala taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Karbala Clean Sheet 20%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karbala Al Gharraf
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 3 6
Draws 6 8
Losses 20 16
Goals Scored 0.79 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karbala 42 / 100
Al Gharraf 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karbala Al Gharraf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Gharraf let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Difficult form: Al Gharraf registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Karbala's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Karbala remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Karbala VS Al Gharraf
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Karbala

(Home)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
07 Sept
Karbala
2 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
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Al Gharraf

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)