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Karlbergs vs Umea FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sweden Sweden

Division 1 - Norra Stadshagens IP, Vasastaden
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Karlbergs host Umea FC in the Division 1 - Norra. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Karlbergs at 1.45 goals for, 1.59 against; Umea FC at 1.31 for, 1.48 against. Head-to-head, Karlbergs have won 0 to Umea FC's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.00 xG vs 1.81) point toward Umea FC. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Karlbergs
20%
Draws
56%
Umea FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Umea FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Karlbergs at 1.45 per game, Umea FC at 1.31.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Umea FC taking it.
  • Regular Division 1 - Norra form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Umea FC have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Karlbergs Clean Sheet 11%
Umea FC Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karlbergs Umea FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.45 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Division 1 - Norra
Umea FC vs Karlbergs
2:1
Sep 29, 2024 Division 1 - Norra
Karlbergs vs Umea FC
2:2
May 19, 2024 Division 1 - Norra
Umea FC vs Karlbergs
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karlbergs 10 / 100
Umea FC 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karlbergs Umea FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Umea FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Karlbergs found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Umea FC let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Karlbergs remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Karlbergs VS Umea FC
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Karlbergs

(Home)
10 Oct
Karlbergs
3 : 3
Vasalund
02 Oct
Karlbergs
3 : 2
Sollentuna
27 Sept
Karlstad
1 : 1
Karlbergs
20 Sept
Karlbergs
0 : 2
FC Stockholm Internazionale
17 Sept
FC Jarfalla
5 : 0
Karlbergs
Page 1 of 6

Umea FC

(Away)
11 Oct
FC Jarfalla
1 : 2
Umea FC
04 Oct
Umea FC
2 : 1
Hammarby TFF
27 Sept
Umea FC
1 : 3
FBK Karlstad
20 Sept
IFK Stocksund
0 : 3
Umea FC
16 Sept
Pitea
0 : 2
Umea FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Stockholm Internazionale 26 19 3 4 63:21 60
2 FC Arlanda 26 14 6 6 46:31 48
3 AFC Eskilstuna 26 14 5 7 48:37 47
4 Hammarby TFF 26 13 6 7 51:26 45
5 Enkopings SK 26 14 3 9 39:40 45
6 Karlstad 26 12 8 6 40:25 44
7 FBK Karlstad 26 12 7 7 41:36 43
8 Assyriska FF 26 10 5 11 44:45 35
9 Umea FC 26 10 5 11 36:42 35
10 Karlbergs 26 9 6 11 36:44 33
11 Gefle 26 9 4 13 32:46 31
12 Vasalund 26 7 7 12 39:55 28
13 Sollentuna 26 6 9 11 27:36 27
14 Pitea 26 5 8 13 33:49 23
15 FC Jarfalla 26 5 4 17 34:57 19
16 IFK Stocksund 26 3 6 17 45:64 15
Promotion - Superettan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Relegation - Play Offs)