Sport Picks
Karonga United vs Chitipa United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Malawi
Super League 
Match Events
75'
75'
Mwale T.
90'
90'
Ngese P. O.
AI Match Summary
The Super League game between Karonga United and Chitipa United finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
25%
35%
40%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chitipa United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Chitipa United carry the better recent record into this one.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Karonga United Clean Sheet 20%
Chitipa United Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Karonga United | Chitipa United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 14 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 23, 2026 Super League
Karonga United vs Chitipa United
1:1
Dec 27, 2025 Super League
Karonga United vs Chitipa United
1:0
Jul 13, 2025 Super League
Chitipa United vs Karonga United
0:0
Sep 28, 2024 Super League
Karonga United vs Chitipa United
1:1
Apr 14, 2024 Super League
Chitipa United vs Karonga United
4:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Karonga United Compare
Top Goalscorer Mwale T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Chitipa United Compare
Top Goalscorer Ngese P. O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Karonga United 36 / 100
Chitipa United 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Karonga United Chitipa United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chitipa United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Karonga United's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Chitipa United has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Karonga United remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Karonga United VS Chitipa United
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Karonga United
(Home) 11 Oct
Karonga United
1 : 0 Civo Utd
06 Sept
Ekhaya
0 : 0 Karonga United
23 Aug
Karonga United
1 : 1 Chitipa United
16 Aug
Karonga United
0 : 1 Big Bullets
09 Aug
Mitundu Baptist
2 : 1 Karonga United
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
Karonga United
1 : 0 Civo Utd
23 Aug
Karonga United
1 : 1 Chitipa United
16 Aug
Karonga United
0 : 1 Big Bullets
26 Jul
Karonga United
2 : 1 Creck Sporting
04 Jul
Karonga United
1 : 3 Dedza Dynamos
Page 1 of 3
Chitipa United
(Away) 18 Oct
Blue Eagles
3 : 0 Chitipa United
10 Oct
Chitipa United
2 : 0 MAFCO
06 Sept
Chitipa United
0 : 0 Creck Sporting
23 Aug
Karonga United
1 : 1 Chitipa United
15 Aug
Chitipa United
1 : 0 Mitundu Baptist
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Blue Eagles
3 : 0 Chitipa United
23 Aug
Karonga United
1 : 1 Chitipa United
09 Aug
Big Bullets
2 : 0 Chitipa United
19 Jul
Dedza Dynamos
1 : 2 Chitipa United
21 Jun
Red Lions
1 : 0 Chitipa United
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bullets | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 25:7 | 36 |
| 2 | Mighty Wanderers FC | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 29:11 | 35 |
| 3 | Blue Eagles | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 27:18 | 34 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 24:11 | 32 |
| 5 | Chitipa United | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 13:19 | 24 |
| 6 | Ekhaya | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17:14 | 22 |
| 7 | Masters FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 8 | Mitundu Baptist | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 14:15 | 22 |
| 9 | Red Lions | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 13:14 | 22 |
| 10 | Moyale Barracks | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 17:20 | 21 |
| 11 | Civo Utd | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 11:16 | 21 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 11:20 | 19 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15:23 | 17 |
| 14 | Kamuzu Barracks | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16:25 | 13 |
| 15 | Creck Sporting | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:22 | 13 |
| 16 | MAFCO | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12:22 | 13 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
