Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Karonga United vs MAFCO Prediction & H2H Stats

Malawi Malawi

Super League
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Mwakabaghe K.
83' Event
Alli A.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Karonga United and MAFCO finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Karonga United
30%
Draws
12%
MAFCO
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Karonga United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Karonga United come out ahead of MAFCO on wins alone.
  • Karonga United are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Karonga United Clean Sheet 68%
MAFCO Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karonga United MAFCO
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 7 9
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 0.97 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Super League
Karonga United vs MAFCO
1:1
Oct 15, 2025 Super League
MAFCO vs Karonga United
2:2
Apr 13, 2025 Super League
Karonga United vs MAFCO
1:0
Sep 22, 2024 Super League
Karonga United vs MAFCO
3:1
Jul 17, 2024 Super League
MAFCO vs Karonga United
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karonga United Compare

Top Goalscorer Mwakabaghe K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

MAFCO Compare

Top Goalscorer Alli A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karonga United 51 / 100
MAFCO 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karonga United MAFCO

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karonga United's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: MAFCO conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Karonga United has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Karonga United VS MAFCO
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Karonga United

(Home)
06 Sept
Ekhaya
0 : 0
Karonga United
23 Aug
Karonga United
1 : 1
Chitipa United
16 Aug
Karonga United
0 : 1
Big Bullets
09 Aug
Mitundu Baptist
2 : 1
Karonga United
26 Jul
Karonga United
2 : 1
Creck Sporting
Page 1 of 6

MAFCO

(Away)
05 Sept
MAFCO
1 : 2
Moyale Barracks
23 Aug
Civo Utd
1 : 0
MAFCO
15 Aug
MAFCO
1 : 1
Masters FC
08 Aug
MAFCO
0 : 1
Blue Eagles
26 Jul
Kamuzu Barracks
4 : 1
MAFCO
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Blue Eagles 15 10 1 4 24:16 31
2 Big Bullets 15 8 6 1 20:7 30
3 Mighty Wanderers FC 15 8 5 2 27:11 29
4 Silver Strikers 15 8 5 2 23:10 29
5 Masters FC 15 6 4 5 17:16 22
6 Moyale Barracks 15 5 6 4 16:17 21
7 Chitipa United 15 6 3 6 11:16 21
8 Red Lions 15 5 5 5 12:13 20
9 Mitundu Baptist 15 5 5 5 12:13 20
10 Civo Utd 15 6 2 7 10:14 20
11 Ekhaya 15 4 6 5 15:14 18
12 Dedza Dynamos 15 3 6 6 9:19 15
13 Karonga United 15 3 5 7 14:23 14
14 MAFCO 15 3 4 8 12:17 13
15 Kamuzu Barracks 15 3 3 9 15:22 12
16 Creck Sporting 15 2 4 9 11:20 10
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)