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Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ukraine Ukraine

Premier League Ukraina Stadium, Lviv
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Rusyn N.
Assist: Calero I.
22'
Moha Moukhliss
25' Event
Luca Meirelles

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Karpaty Lviv and Shakhtar finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shakhtar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Karpaty Lviv
15%
Draws
51%
Shakhtar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shakhtar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Shakhtar's 2.07 goals per match outpaces what Karpaty Lviv have produced (1.93).
  • Shakhtar are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Karpaty Lviv Clean Sheet 18%
Shakhtar Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karpaty Lviv Shakhtar
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 18 18
Draws 7 6
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 1.93 2.07
Goals Conceded 0.62 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Premier League
Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar
1:2
Feb 22, 2026 Premier League
Shakhtar vs Karpaty Lviv
3:0
Aug 10, 2025 Premier League
Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar
3:3
Mar 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar
1:2
Mar 11, 2025 Premier League
Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karpaty Lviv Compare

Top Goalscorer Rusyn N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Shakhtar Compare

Top Goalscorer Luca Meirelles
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alisson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karpaty Lviv 12 / 100
Shakhtar 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karpaty Lviv Shakhtar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhtar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karpaty Lviv's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Karpaty Lviv has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Shakhtar let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Karpaty Lviv VS Shakhtar
2 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Karpaty Lviv

(Home)
03 Oct
KV Mechelen
2 : 3
Karpaty Lviv
20 Sept
Karpaty Lviv
1 : 1
Veres Rivne
16 Sept
Kolos Kovalivka
2 : 3
Karpaty Lviv
11 Sept
Kolos Kovalivka
0 : 2
Karpaty Lviv
05 Sept
Karpaty Lviv
1 : 2
Shakhtar
Page 1 of 6

Shakhtar

(Away)
09 Oct
Veres Rivne
0 : 3
Shakhtar
02 Oct
Shakhtar
3 : 0
Kryvbas
20 Sept
Shakhtar
3 : 0
LNZ Cherkasy
17 Sept
FC Vilkhivtsi
0 : 3
Shakhtar
14 Sept
Shakhtar
2 : 0
Ch. Odesa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhtar 8 7 0 1 18:4 21
2 Polissya Zhytomyr 7 6 0 1 15:5 18
3 FC Kharkiv 7 5 0 2 14:5 15
4 Karpaty Lviv 7 4 2 1 15:5 14
5 Dynamo Kyiv 6 4 1 1 9:5 13
6 Veres Rivne 8 2 3 3 6:9 9
7 Epitsentr 7 2 2 3 6:7 8
8 LNZ Cherkasy 7 2 2 3 5:8 8
9 Zorya 7 2 2 3 7:11 8
10 Livyi Bereg 6 1 4 1 4:3 7
11 Bukovyna 7 1 4 2 4:6 7
12 Ch. Odesa 7 1 2 4 4:9 5
13 Kolos Kovalivka 6 1 2 3 6:10 5
14 Kryvbas 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
15 Obolon 7 0 4 3 2:12 4
16 Kudrivka 7 0 2 5 5:18 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Persha Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Persha Liga 2027/2028 (Main)