Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Karvan vs Gabala

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Yevlakh City Stadium, Yevlakh
Karvan Logo

Karvan

1 - 2
FT
Gabala Logo

Gabala

Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Abdullayev V.
46'
Sub
Abdullayev S. In: Cahangirov U.
Out: Abdullayev S.
47'
Doyeni O.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gabala in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gabala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Karvan
20%
Draws
73%
Gabala
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gabala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Very High Confidence
  • Gabala have won more games recently than Karvan.
  • Model gives Gabala a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Karvan Clean Sheet 16%
Gabala Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karvan Gabala
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 3 10
Draws 5 5
Losses 23 15
Goals Scored 0.75 0.88
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier League
Karvan vs Gabala
1:2
Feb 28, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Karvan
1:1
Aug 15, 2025 Premier League
Karvan vs Gabala
1:1
May 2, 2025 I Liqa
Karvan vs Gabala
2:0
Feb 28, 2025 I Liqa
Gabala vs Karvan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karvan Compare

Top Goalscorer Doyeni O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Gabala Compare

Top Goalscorer Sangare I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Massoumou D. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karvan 10 / 100
Gabala 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karvan Gabala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GAB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Gabala conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Karvan's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: Karvan stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Karvan VS Gabala
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Karvan

(Home)
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
05 May
Karvan
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
27 Apr
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
Karvan
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Gabala

(Away)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
09 May
Gabala
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
03 May
Zira FK
1 : 0
Gabala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)