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Karvan vs Gancabasar

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Karvan host Gancabasar in the I Liqa. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Gancabasar have shipped 2.07 goals a game lately, while Karvan have conceded 1.83 and scored 0.79. Head-to-head, Karvan have won 1 to Gancabasar's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 25, 2025, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 1.31, favoring Gancabasar. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Karvan
15%
Draws
51%
Gancabasar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gancabasar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gancabasar come out ahead of Karvan on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Karvan's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Karvan Clean Sheet 18%
Gancabasar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karvan Gancabasar
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 9
Draws 5 3
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 0.79 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2025 I Liqa
Karvan vs Gancabasar
2:0
Feb 19, 2025 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Karvan
1:1
Nov 7, 2024 I Liqa
Karvan vs Gancabasar
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karvan 41 / 100
Gancabasar 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karvan Gancabasar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gancabasar let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Gancabasar registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Karvan scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Karvan VS Gancabasar
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Karvan

(Home)
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3
Karvan
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
Page 1 of 6

Gancabasar

(Away)
10 Sept
Gancabasar
2 : 1
FC Khankendi
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
15 May
Safa Baku
1 : 0
Gancabasar
07 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Baku Sporting
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
2 Gancabasar 2 2 0 0 4:2 6
3 Zaqatala PFK 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
4 Sabail 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
5 Karvan 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
6 Mingachevir 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
7 Shimal 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
8 FC Khankendi 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
9 MOIK Baku 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
10 Baku Sporting 2 0 0 2 0:6 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)