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Karvan vs Shamakhi Prediction & H2H Stats

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Yevlakh City Stadium, Yevlakh
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Rossi K.
39' Event
Mickels J.
39'
Sub
Cahangirov U. In: Spence K. C.
Out: Cahangirov U.

AI Match Summary

Karvan in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Karvan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Karvan
35%
Draws
37%
Shamakhi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Shamakhi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Shamakhi lately — more wins on the board than Karvan.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Karvan taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Shamakhi have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Karvan Clean Sheet 20%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karvan Shamakhi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 0.87 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.77 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Karvan vs Shamakhi
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Premier League
Karvan vs Shamakhi
0:3
Sep 14, 2025 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Karvan
3:0
May 9, 2024 I Liqa
Shamakhi vs Karvan
3:0
Mar 7, 2024 I Liqa
Karvan vs Shamakhi
0:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karvan Compare

Top Goalscorer Mickels J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Shamakhi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karvan 42 / 100
Shamakhi 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karvan Shamakhi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Shamakhi conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Karvan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Karvan's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Karvan VS Shamakhi
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Karvan

(Home)
16 Sept
Karvan
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3
Karvan
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
Page 1 of 6

Shamakhi

(Away)
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1
Araz PFK
12 Sept
SumQayit FK
1 : 1
Shamakhi
04 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 4
Shamakhi
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
23 Aug
Turan
0 : 0
Shamakhi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)