Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Mercari Stadium, Kashima

Kashima Antlers

2 - 1

Chiba

Our Tip

Match Events

Elber

Assist: Araki R.

35'

Sekigawa I.

56'

Sub

Eduardo In: Yasui T.

Out: Eduardo

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Kashima Antlers and Chiba finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kashima Antlers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Kashima Antlers

Draws

Chiba

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Kashima Antlers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Chiba haven't matched Kashima Antlers's recent run of results.
Kashima Antlers are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Kashima Antlers have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%

Kashima Antlers Clean Sheet 20%

Chiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kashima Antlers	Chiba
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	22	9
Draws	4	3
Losses	4	18
Goals Scored	1.63	1
Goals Conceded	0.5	2
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J1 League

Chiba vs Kashima Antlers

0:2

Mar 22, 2026 J1 League

Kashima Antlers vs Chiba

2:1

Dec 23, 2012 Emperors Cup

Chiba vs Kashima Antlers

0:1

Oct 24, 2009 J1 League

Kashima Antlers vs Chiba

3:0

May 2, 2009 J1 League

Chiba vs Kashima Antlers

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kashima Antlers Compare

Top Goalscorer Elber

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ueda N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Issaka Z.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kashima Antlers 85 / 100

Chiba 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kashima Antlers Chiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAS Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Kashima Antlers scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Chiba's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Kashima Antlers has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kashima Antlers VS Chiba

1.63 Goals Scored 1

0.5 Goals Conceded 2

63% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 50%

0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kashima Antlers

(Home)

15 Jul

Kashima Antlers

5 : 0

Vegalta Sendai

06 Jun

Kashima Antlers

2 : 0

Vissel Kobe

30 May

Vissel Kobe

5 : 0

Kashima Antlers

23 May

Kashima Antlers

1 : 0

FC Tokyo

17 May

Chiba

0 : 2

Kashima Antlers

Page 1 of 6

Chiba

(Away)

06 Jun

Chiba

1 : 2

Avispa Fukuoka

30 May

Avispa Fukuoka

2 : 2

Chiba

23 May

Kashiwa Reysol

4 : 2

Chiba

17 May

Chiba

0 : 2

Kashima Antlers

10 May

Chiba

0 : 2

Machida Zelvia

Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

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League Standings (Group 2)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21

Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)

Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)