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Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J.League Cup Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
Kashiwa Reysol Logo

Kashiwa Reysol

Sat, Oct 3, 2026
5 - 4
10:00 AM
Gamba Osaka Logo

Gamba Osaka

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Fujio S.
45' Event
Jebali I.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Meshino R. In: Usami T.
Out: Meshino R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 5-4. This leg finished 5-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Kashiwa Reysol
15%
Draws
28%
Gamba Osaka
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kashiwa Reysol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kashiwa Reysol lately — more wins on the board than Gamba Osaka.
  • Kashiwa Reysol are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Kashiwa Reysol have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Kashiwa Reysol, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Kashiwa Reysol Clean Sheet 13%
Gamba Osaka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kashiwa Reysol Gamba Osaka
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 14
Draws 0 4
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.96 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 J.League Cup
Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka
5:4
Oct 18, 2025 J1 League
Gamba Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol
0:5
Apr 6, 2025 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka
1:0
Aug 11, 2024 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka
0:0
Jun 16, 2024 J1 League
Gamba Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kashiwa Reysol Compare

Top Goalscorer Fujio S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Yuba K.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Gamba Osaka Compare

Top Goalscorer Welton
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jebali I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kashiwa Reysol 40 / 100
Gamba Osaka 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kashiwa Reysol Gamba Osaka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Kashiwa Reysol scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Gamba Osaka conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Kashiwa Reysol remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kashiwa Reysol VS Gamba Osaka
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kashiwa Reysol

(Home)
09 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2
Vissel Kobe
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4
Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 0
Imabari
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4
Kashiwa Reysol
16 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 1
Kashiwa Reysol
Page 1 of 6

Gamba Osaka

(Away)
09 Oct
Kashima Antlers
2 : 0
Gamba Osaka
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4
Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Gamba Osaka
5 : 0
Tokushima
20 Sept
Gamba Osaka
0 : 1
Vissel Kobe
15 Sept
Gamba Osaka
4 : 1
Cong An Ha Noi
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Tochigi City 0
Matsumoto Yamaga 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
Kanazawa 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds 3
Toyama 2
Yokohama FC 2
Gifu 1
Okayama 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Kumamoto 0
Chiba 2
Iwata 4
Avispa Fukuoka 2
FC Osaka 1
Verdy 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka 2
Fujieda MYFC 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 0
Gainare Tottori 2
FC Tokyo 2
Ehime 0
Mito 7
Fukushima United 0
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/16-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Matsumoto Yamaga -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Urawa Reds -
Yokohama FC -
Okayama -
Nagoya Grampus -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Iwata -
Avispa Fukuoka -
Sagan Tosu -
Cerezo Osaka -
Gainare Tottori -
FC Tokyo -
Mito -
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Machida Zelvia 1
Kyoto 0
Kashiwa Reysol 5
Gamba Osaka 4
1/64-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Vanraure 0
Tochigi City 2
Matsumoto Yamaga 4
Shonan Bellmare 3
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Albirex Niigata 2
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Kanazawa 2
Imabari 1
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 0
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Toyama 2
Ryukyu 2
Yokohama FC 3
Gifu 1
Tokushima 0
Okayama -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Iwaki 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Kumamoto 2
Oita Trinita 0
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Chiba 2
SC Sagamihara 0
Iwata 3
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
FC Osaka 3
Kofu 0
Reilac Shiga 0
Verdy 1
Nara Club 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Renofa Yamaguchi 0
Fujieda MYFC 2
Kochi United 0
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Omiya Ardija 1
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Ehime 1
Blaublitz 0
Nagano Parceiro 0
Mito 1
Fukushima United 4
Vegalta Sendai 3
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -