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Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kashiwa Reysol host Nagoya Grampus in the J1 League. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Kashiwa Reysol at 1.96 goals for, 1.29 against; Nagoya Grampus at 1.44 for, 1.85 against. Past meetings favor Kashiwa Reysol slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 8, 2025, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 1.06, favoring Kashiwa Reysol. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Kashiwa Reysol
15%
Draws
17%
Nagoya Grampus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kashiwa Reysol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Kashiwa Reysol carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 68% — that's where the model lands on Kashiwa Reysol taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Kashiwa Reysol Clean Sheet 20%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kashiwa Reysol Nagoya Grampus
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 18 10
Draws 0 1
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.96 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 8, 2025 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus
1:0
Apr 29, 2025 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol
1:2
Jul 14, 2024 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol
2:1
Jun 9, 2024 J.League Cup
Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol
1:0
Jun 5, 2024 J.League Cup
Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kashiwa Reysol 85 / 100
Nagoya Grampus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kashiwa Reysol Nagoya Grampus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kashiwa Reysol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nagoya Grampus let in goals in 89% of their last 27 matches.

Kashiwa Reysol's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Kashiwa Reysol stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kashiwa Reysol VS Nagoya Grampus
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kashiwa Reysol

(Home)
09 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2
Vissel Kobe
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4
Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 0
Imabari
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4
Kashiwa Reysol
16 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 1
Kashiwa Reysol
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Nagoya Grampus

(Away)
29 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 3
Nagoya Grampus
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3
Machida Zelvia
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashiwa Reysol 9 7 0 2 21:14 21
2 Vissel Kobe 9 6 1 2 14:9 19
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 20:6 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 21:10 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 14:8 17
6 Kashima Antlers 9 5 1 3 19:16 16
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
8 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 16:12 13
9 Okayama 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
10 Urawa Reds 8 4 0 4 16:18 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 7:12 11
12 Shimizu S-Pulse 8 3 1 4 6:8 10
13 Mito 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
14 Kyoto 8 2 2 4 11:15 8
15 V-Varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 10:15 8
16 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 7:14 6
17 Gamba Osaka 9 1 3 5 8:16 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 9:12 4
19 Verdy 8 0 4 4 4:12 4
20 Chiba 8 1 1 6 7:18 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)