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Kaspij Aktau vs FC Astana

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Zhestar Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Kasym A.
35'
Sub
Abrayev M. In: Anuarov S.
Out: Abrayev M.
39'
Karimov R.

AI Match Summary

Kaspij Aktau in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kaspij Aktau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Kaspij Aktau
39%
Draws
31%
FC Astana
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Kaspij Aktau have won more games recently than FC Astana.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors FC Astana here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 18%
FC Astana Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kaspij Aktau FC Astana
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 2 10
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.25 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs FC Astana
1:0
Jul 7, 2024 League Cup
FC Astana vs Kaspij Aktau
5:0
Jul 2, 2023 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs FC Astana
1:2
Jun 24, 2023 Premier League
FC Astana vs Kaspij Aktau
3:1
Sep 10, 2022 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs FC Astana
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kaspij Aktau 31 / 100
FC Astana 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kaspij Aktau FC Astana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Kaspij Aktau scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

FC Astana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Kaspij Aktau stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kaspij Aktau VS FC Astana
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ordabasy17124130:1240
2Kairat Almaty18116134:1239
3FC Astana1785425:1929
4Okzhetpes1776422:2427
5Yelimay Semey1675424:1926
6Ulytau1775514:1526
7Aktobe1774622:1825
8Zhenis1756614:1921
9Atyrau1639412:1318
10Zhetysu Taldykorgan1746721:2518
11Tobol1753919:2518
12Kaisar Kyzylorda1839613:2018
13Kaspij Aktau17521015:2217
14Altai1737712:1816
15Kyzylzhar17431017:2515
16Ertis Pavlodar1718814:2211