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Kataka vs Ntugasaze

Uganda Uganda

Big League 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kataka in this Big League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kataka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Kataka
15%
Draws
26%
Ntugasaze
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kataka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kataka lately — more wins on the board than Ntugasaze.
  • Win probability leans Kataka's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Kataka Clean Sheet 17%
Ntugasaze Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kataka Ntugasaze
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 15 13
Draws 4 9
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.26 1.39
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Big League
Kataka vs Ntugasaze
3:1
Dec 7, 2025 Big League
Ntugasaze vs Kataka
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Big League
Ntugasaze vs Kataka
1:0
Jan 12, 2025 Big League
Kataka vs Ntugasaze
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kataka 66 / 100
Ntugasaze 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kataka Ntugasaze

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kataka Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kataka's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Kataka stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Ntugasaze's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Kataka VS Ntugasaze
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Kataka

(Home)
16 Sept
Kampala City
1 : 0
Kataka
03 Sept
Kataka
1 : 4
BUL
29 Aug
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Kataka
06 Jun
Bright Stars
0 : 2
Kataka
24 May
Kataka
2 : 0
Kigezi HomeBoyz
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Ntugasaze

(Away)
19 Sept
Vipers
3 : 0
Ntugasaze
08 Sept
BUL
4 : 1
Ntugasaze
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
29 Aug
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Ntugasaze
06 Jun
Kiyinda Boys
0 : 3
Ntugasaze
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Blacks Power 30 16 7 7 35:18 55
2 Ntugasaze 30 14 11 5 42:22 53
3 Kataka 30 16 3 11 40:26 51
4 Kigezi HomeBoyz 30 14 9 7 36:22 51
5 Paidha Black Angels 30 15 7 8 33:23 50
6 Bunyaruguru 30 12 7 11 31:25 43
7 Young Elephant 30 12 6 12 44:40 42
8 Kiyinda Boys 30 12 6 12 40:31 40
9 Iganga United 30 11 5 14 30:33 38
10 Catda 30 9 10 11 24:32 37
11 Kaaro Karungi 30 10 8 12 26:30 36
12 Onduparaka 30 9 9 12 24:32 36
13 Nebbi Central 30 9 9 12 35:42 34
14 Bright Stars 30 7 11 12 25:31 32
15 Wakiso Giants 30 8 7 15 31:48 31
16 Mbale Heroes 30 6 5 19 14:67 17
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