Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kawasaki Frontale vs Machida Zelvia

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium, Kawasaki
Kawasaki Frontale Logo

Kawasaki Frontale

Sun, May 17, 2026
2 - 1
10:00 AM
Machida Zelvia Logo

Machida Zelvia

Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Romanic L.
40' Event
Yengi T.
Assist: Shimoda H.
46'
Sub
Shoji G. In: Nakayama Y.
Out: Shoji G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kawasaki Frontale in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kawasaki Frontale.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Kawasaki Frontale
35%
Draws
38%
Machida Zelvia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Machida Zelvia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Kawasaki Frontale haven't matched Machida Zelvia's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Machida Zelvia a 38% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Kawasaki Frontale Clean Sheet 10%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kawasaki Frontale Machida Zelvia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 20
Draws 4 3
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.57 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.54 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J1 League
Kawasaki Frontale vs Machida Zelvia
2:1
Mar 28, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale
2:1
Aug 31, 2025 J1 League
Kawasaki Frontale vs Machida Zelvia
5:3
Apr 6, 2025 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale
2:2
Oct 5, 2024 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kawasaki Frontale Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Machida Zelvia Compare

Top Goalscorer Yengi T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kawasaki Frontale 26 / 100
Machida Zelvia 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kawasaki Frontale Machida Zelvia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Machida Zelvia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Kawasaki Frontale stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Kawasaki Frontale's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Machida Zelvia conceded in 54% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Kawasaki Frontale VS Machida Zelvia
1.38 Goals Scored 2.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Kawasaki Frontale

(Home)
29 Aug
Kawasaki Frontale
4 : 2
Chiba
26 Aug
Kawasaki Frontale
3 : 1
Tochigi SC
22 Aug
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1 : 1
Kawasaki Frontale
15 Aug
Kawasaki Frontale
2 : 2
Kyoto
09 Aug
Verdy
1 : 1
Kawasaki Frontale
Page 1 of 6

Machida Zelvia

(Away)
29 Aug
Mito
1 : 1
Machida Zelvia
26 Aug
Machida Zelvia
3 : 0
Iwate Grulla Morioka
23 Aug
Machida Zelvia
3 : 1
Urawa Reds
15 Aug
Chiba
0 : 4
Machida Zelvia
08 Aug
FC Tokyo
1 : 5
Machida Zelvia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)