Sport Picks

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Keflavik vs KA Akureyri

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Keflavíkurvöllur, Keflavík
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Ragnarsson E.
27' Event
Magnusson S.
32' Event
Valsson D.
Assist: Johannesson A.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Keflavik and KA Akureyri finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Keflavik.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Keflavik
30%
Draws
29%
KA Akureyri
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Keflavik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Keflavik carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Keflavik are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Keflavik Clean Sheet 10%
KA Akureyri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Keflavik KA Akureyri
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 2 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2026 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs KA Akureyri
3:0
Apr 26, 2026 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Keflavik
1:2
Sep 20, 2023 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Keflavik
4:2
Jul 24, 2023 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs KA Akureyri
3:4
Apr 23, 2023 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Keflavik
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Keflavik Compare

Top Goalscorer Magnusson S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Valsson D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

KA Akureyri Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Keflavik 56 / 100
KA Akureyri 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Keflavik KA Akureyri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Keflavik Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Keflavik scored in 96% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: KA Akureyri conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Keflavik went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Keflavik VS KA Akureyri
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Keflavik

(Home)
05 Aug
Keflavik
3 : 0
KA Akureyri
24 Jul
Vikingur Reykjavik
5 : 1
Keflavik
20 Jul
Keflavik
5 : 2
Akranes
13 Jul
Breidablik
2 : 1
Keflavik
06 Jul
Keflavik
1 : 1
Fram
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KA Akureyri

(Away)
05 Aug
Keflavik
3 : 0
KA Akureyri
27 Jul
KA Akureyri
0 : 0
Thor Akureyri
19 Jul
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2 : 2
KA Akureyri
12 Jul
KA Akureyri
3 : 2
Akranes
02 Jul
Vikingur Reykjavik
3 : 2
KA Akureyri
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 14 3 1 58:16 45
2 KR Reykjavik 18 12 3 3 64:39 39
3 Fram 18 11 4 3 45:34 37
4 Breidablik 18 8 5 5 36:30 29
5 Valur 18 7 1 10 31:36 22
6 Akranes 18 6 4 8 30:36 22
7 Keflavik 18 6 4 8 28:34 22
8 Stjarnan 18 6 3 9 33:43 21
9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 4 5 9 29:38 17
10 Hafnarfjordur 18 3 8 7 22:32 17
11 KA Akureyri 18 4 3 11 24:36 15
12 Thor Akureyri 18 4 3 11 18:44 15
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)