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Keflavik vs KA Akureyri

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Keflavíkurvöllur, Keflavík
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Ragnarsson E.
27' Event
Magnusson S.
32' Event
Valsson D.
Assist: Johannesson A.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Keflavik and KA Akureyri finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Keflavik.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Keflavik
20%
Draws
36%
KA Akureyri
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Keflavik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Keflavik carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Keflavik are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Keflavik Clean Sheet 15%
KA Akureyri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Keflavik KA Akureyri
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 5 6
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.66 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2026 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs KA Akureyri
3:0
Apr 26, 2026 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Keflavik
1:2
Sep 20, 2023 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Keflavik
4:2
Jul 24, 2023 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs KA Akureyri
3:4
Apr 23, 2023 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Keflavik
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Keflavik Compare

Top Goalscorer Magnusson S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Valsson D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

KA Akureyri Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Keflavik 39 / 100
KA Akureyri 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Keflavik KA Akureyri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Keflavik Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Keflavik scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: KA Akureyri conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Keflavik went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Keflavik VS KA Akureyri
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Keflavik

(Home)
14 Sept
Vikingur Reykjavik
4 : 1
Keflavik
05 Sept
Keflavik
1 : 2
Valur
30 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 1
Keflavik
23 Aug
Keflavik
1 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
15 Aug
Thor Akureyri
0 : 2
Keflavik
Page 1 of 6

KA Akureyri

(Away)
13 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
3 : 0
KA Akureyri
06 Sept
KA Akureyri
2 : 1
Breidablik
30 Aug
Fram
2 : 2
KA Akureyri
23 Aug
KA Akureyri
3 : 5
KR Reykjavik
17 Aug
Valur
4 : 4
KA Akureyri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 67:21 53
2 Fram 22 13 6 3 56:42 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 74:49 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 43:41 30
5 Akranes 22 8 6 8 39:41 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 33:38 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 42:50 28
8 Valur 22 8 3 11 39:45 27
9 Hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 27:39 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 22:50 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 35:48 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 32:45 18
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)