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Keflavik vs Stjarnan

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Keflavíkurvöllur, Keflavík
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Johannesson A.
41' Event
Al Ghoul M.
Assist: Baxter B.
46'
Sub
Atlason E. In: Brink H. O.
Out: Atlason E.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Keflavik and Stjarnan finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Keflavik
15%
Draws
49%
Stjarnan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stjarnan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Stjarnan come out ahead of Keflavik on wins alone.
  • Keflavik are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
Keflavik Clean Sheet 16%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Keflavik Stjarnan
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 13 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.83 1.84
Goals Conceded 1.66 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Keflavik
1:0
May 17, 2026 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs Stjarnan
1:1
Jan 30, 2026 League Cup
Stjarnan vs Keflavik
2:1
Jun 18, 2025 Icelandic Cup
Stjarnan vs Keflavik
4:2
Feb 25, 2025 League Cup
Stjarnan vs Keflavik
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Keflavik Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Ghoul M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Stjarnan Compare

Top Goalscorer Bjarnason A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Keflavik 41 / 100
Stjarnan 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Keflavik Stjarnan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Keflavik's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Stjarnan conceded in 91% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Keflavik remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Keflavik VS Stjarnan
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Keflavik

(Home)
30 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 1
Keflavik
23 Aug
Keflavik
1 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
15 Aug
Thor Akureyri
0 : 2
Keflavik
09 Aug
Stjarnan
1 : 0
Keflavik
05 Aug
Keflavik
3 : 0
KA Akureyri
Page 1 of 6

Stjarnan

(Away)
31 Aug
Breidablik
0 : 2
Stjarnan
23 Aug
Stjarnan
4 : 2
Thor Akureyri
17 Aug
Fram
3 : 1
Stjarnan
09 Aug
Stjarnan
1 : 0
Keflavik
03 Aug
Valur
2 : 3
Stjarnan
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 21 16 4 1 65:19 52
2 KR Reykjavik 21 13 5 3 73:46 44
3 Fram 21 13 5 3 54:40 44
4 Breidablik 21 8 6 7 42:39 30
5 Keflavik 21 8 4 9 32:36 28
6 Akranes 21 7 6 8 36:40 27
7 Stjarnan 21 8 3 10 40:48 27
8 Valur 21 7 3 11 37:44 24
9 Hafnarfjordur 21 4 9 8 27:38 21
10 Thor Akureyri 21 5 3 13 21:50 18
11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 21 4 5 12 30:43 17
12 KA Akureyri 21 4 5 12 33:47 17
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)