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Keflavik vs Valur - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Keflavíkurvöllur, Keflavík
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Sub
Palsson J. In: Stole I.
Out: Palsson J.
29'
Fridjonsson S.
36' Event
Jonsson J.
Assist: Gardarson D.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Keflavik and Valur finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valur.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Keflavik
30%
Draws
47%
Valur
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Valur

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Valur haven't matched Keflavik's recent run of results.
  • Valur are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Besta deild karla form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Keflavik Clean Sheet 16%
Valur Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Keflavik Valur
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.69 1.65
Goals Conceded 1.86 2.16
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs Valur
1:2
Jun 21, 2026 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Keflavik
1:1
Jun 9, 2024 Icelandic Cup
Keflavik vs Valur
3:4
Aug 13, 2023 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs Valur
1:1
May 21, 2023 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Keflavik
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Keflavik Compare

Top Goalscorer Mudrazija M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Valur Compare

Top Goalscorer Jonsson J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gardarson D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Keflavik 23 / 100
Valur 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Keflavik Valur

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valur Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Keflavik found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Valur conceded in 90% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Keflavik went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Keflavik VS Valur
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Keflavik

(Home)
20 Sept
Keflavik
2 : 2
Fram
14 Sept
Vikingur Reykjavik
4 : 1
Keflavik
05 Sept
Keflavik
1 : 2
Valur
30 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 1
Keflavik
23 Aug
Keflavik
1 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Page 1 of 6

Valur

(Away)
20 Sept
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1 : 1
Valur
13 Sept
Valur
4 : 1
Thor Akureyri
05 Sept
Keflavik
1 : 2
Valur
30 Aug
Valur
2 : 2
Akranes
23 Aug
Vikingur Reykjavik
2 : 0
Valur
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 67:21 53
2 Fram 22 13 6 3 56:42 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 74:49 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 43:41 30
5 Akranes 22 8 6 8 39:41 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 33:38 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 42:50 28
8 Valur 22 8 3 11 39:45 27
9 Hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 27:39 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 22:50 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 35:48 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 32:45 18
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)