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Kelty Hearts vs Montrose

Scotland Scotland

League One 2025/2026 New Central Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kelty Hearts play Montrose in the League One 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kelty Hearts averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Montrose averaged 1 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. In past meetings, Kelty Hearts won 2, Montrose won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Kelty Hearts and 1.31 for Montrose. This points to a Montrose double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Kelty Hearts
6%
Draws
90%
Montrose
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Montrose

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Montrose has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Kelty Hearts.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Montrose.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in League One 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Kelty Hearts Clean Sheet 18%
Montrose Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kelty Hearts Montrose
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 7 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.75 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 League One
Kelty Hearts vs Montrose
3:1
Mar 3, 2026 League One
Montrose vs Kelty Hearts
1:1
Dec 6, 2025 League One
Kelty Hearts vs Montrose
0:3
Aug 9, 2025 League One
Montrose vs Kelty Hearts
1:2
Mar 8, 2025 League One
Kelty Hearts vs Montrose
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kelty Hearts Compare

Top Goalscorer Cooper C.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Montrose Compare

Top Goalscorer Lyons B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kelty Hearts 10 / 100
Montrose 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kelty Hearts Montrose

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kelty Hearts scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Montrose let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Kelty Hearts went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Montrose lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kelty Hearts VS Montrose
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Inverness362111460:2469
2Stenhousemuir361813550:2767
3Queen of the South3614121058:4754
4Alloa361581350:3853
5Peterhead361271748:6443
6Montrose361191648:6742
7Cove Rangers369111641:4438
8East Fife36991834:6136
9Hamilton361671354:4234
10Kelty Hearts366111933:6229