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Kerkennah vs EM Mahdia

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kerkennah play EM Mahdia in the Ligue 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kerkennah averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1 conceded. EM Mahdia averaged 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. In past meetings, Kerkennah won 4, EM Mahdia won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 11, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Kerkennah and 0.50 for EM Mahdia. This points to a Kerkennah double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Kerkennah
23%
Draws
30%
EM Mahdia
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Kerkennah

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Kerkennah picked up more points recently compared to EM Mahdia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 0.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Kerkennah Clean Sheet 31%
EM Mahdia Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 50%
Second Half Goal 52%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kerkennah EM Mahdia
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 11 9
Draws 11 10
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.13 0.91
Goals Conceded 1 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Kerkennah
1:3
Dec 13, 2025 Ligue 2
Kerkennah vs EM Mahdia
1:0
Sep 6, 2025 Club Friendly
Kerkennah vs EM Mahdia
1:0
Aug 23, 2025 Club Friendly
EM Mahdia vs Kerkennah
1:0
Jan 26, 2025 Club Friendly
EM Mahdia vs Kerkennah
1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerkennah 49 / 100
EM Mahdia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kerkennah EM Mahdia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Kerkennah or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kerkennah attacking → ← attacking EM Mahdia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kerkennah scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

EM Mahdia let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Kerkennah went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

EM Mahdia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 37
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.25
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Hamam-Sousse26156540:1951
2Hammam-Lif26156536:1451
3US Tataouine26156534:1651
4Sfax Railways26137635:2646
5Sporting Ben Arous26810830:1934
6Kerkennah26810827:2734
7Chebba2689933:3733
8Msaken26710923:2831
9BS Bouhajla26791021:2330
10Megrine26791025:3530
11EM Mahdia266101018:2528
12AS Agareb26771222:3328
13Bousalem26671319:3425
14Menzel Bourguiba26381515:4217
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1PS Sakiet Eddaier26168254:1556
2Stade Gabesien26158343:1653
3Kasserine26145731:1847
4Jendouba Sport26911634:2438
5Korba26910721:2037
6Bouchamma2698935:3035
7Gafsa26971028:3134
8Ariana26881026:3232
9Ksour Essef26951240:3432
10Redeyef26881027:3932
11Kalaa26931428:4430
12Moknine26781129:3629
13Djelma26681216:3326
14Sidi Bouzid26351817:5714