Sport Picks

Ireland

Division 1 Mounthawk Park

Kerry

2 - 1

Longford

Our Tip

Match Events

58'

Sub

Brosnan C. In: Palmer L.

Out: Brosnan C.

67'

Sub

Perez R. In: Bargary C.

Out: Perez R.

80'

Murphy C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kerry in this Division 1 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kerry.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Kerry

33%

Draws

27%

Longford

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Kerry

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Longford lately — more wins on the board than Kerry.
40% — that's where the model lands on Kerry taking it.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%

Kerry Clean Sheet 68%

Longford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kerry	Longford
Matches Played	31	28
Wins	7	10
Draws	10	7
Losses	14	11
Goals Scored	1.13	1.63
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2026 Division 1

Kerry vs Longford

Possession: 41% - 45% Cards: 4 - 0

2:1

Apr 25, 2026 Division 1

Longford vs Kerry

Possession: 60% - 59% Cards: 3 - 2

1:0

Feb 27, 2026 Division 1

Kerry vs Longford

Possession: 43% - 54% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Aug 22, 2025 Division 1

Kerry vs Longford

Possession: 51% - 56% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Jul 12, 2025 Division 1

Longford vs Kerry

Possession: 55% - 53% Cards: 1 - 0

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer Murphy C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Borden V.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Longford Compare

Top Goalscorer Paraschiv A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 50 / 100

Longford 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kerry Longford

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KER Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kerry scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Longford let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Kerry stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kerry VS Longford

1.13 Goals Scored 1.63

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88

63% Over 1.5 100%

50% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cork City	23	17	3	3	46:15	54
2	Bray	23	10	7	6	46:30	37
3	UC Dublin	23	11	3	9	36:27	36
4	Longford	23	8	7	8	27:30	31
5	Cobh Ramblers	23	9	4	10	25:32	31
6	Wexford	23	7	7	9	27:32	28
7	Athlone	23	7	6	10	21:27	27
8	Kerry	23	6	8	9	24:29	26
9	Treaty United	23	5	8	10	22:34	23
10	Finn Harps	23	5	7	11	20:38	22