Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kerry vs Cork City

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Mounthawk Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kerry play Cork City in the Division 1. Cork City are favorites here. Recently, Kerry averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.66 conceded. Cork City averaged 1.86 goals scored and 0.61 conceded. In past meetings, Kerry won 1, Cork City won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 4, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.63 for Kerry and 1.88 for Cork City. This points to a Cork City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Kerry
15%
Draws
61%
Cork City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cork City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Kerry picked up more points recently compared to Cork City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.63 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Kerry Clean Sheet 10%
Cork City Clean Sheet 21%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kerry Cork City
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 20
Draws 8 4
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 1.17 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.66 0.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Cork City
1:0
Apr 6, 2026 Division 1
Cork City vs Kerry
4:2
Feb 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Cork City vs Kerry
4:1
Feb 5, 2025 Club Friendly
Kerry vs Cork City
1:2
Sep 13, 2024 Division 1
Kerry vs Cork City
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer Brookwell N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Cork City Compare

Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 24 / 100
Cork City 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kerry Cork City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cork City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Cork City & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kerry attacking → ← attacking Cork City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kerry scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Cork City let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Kerry went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Cork City lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 64
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.63
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cork City22173243:1154
2UC Dublin22113836:2136
3Bray2297640:3034
4Cobh Ramblers2294925:3031
5Longford2277823:2728
6Wexford2276925:3027
7Kerry2267922:2725
8Athlone22661019:2724
9Finn Harps22571020:3722
10Treaty United22481021:3420