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Kerry vs Treaty United

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kerry play Treaty United in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kerry averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Treaty United averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Kerry won 0, Treaty United won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jul 3, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Kerry and 0.94 for Treaty United. This points to a Treaty United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Kerry
35%
Draws
35%
Treaty United
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Treaty United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Kerry picked up more points recently compared to Treaty United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Kerry Clean Sheet 24%
Treaty United Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kerry Treaty United
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.13 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Kerry
2:1
Apr 17, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Treaty United
1:1
Mar 6, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Kerry
2:2
Jan 13, 2026 Club Friendly
Kerry vs Treaty United
2:4
Sep 26, 2025 Division 1
Kerry vs Treaty United
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer Borden V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Treaty United Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Curtis C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 32 / 100
Treaty United 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kerry Treaty United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Treaty United or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kerry attacking → ← attacking Treaty United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kerry scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Treaty United let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Kerry went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Treaty United lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 36
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50