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Kerry vs Treaty United

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Borden V.
53' Event
Lee B.
57' Event
Curtis C.

AI Match Summary

Treaty United in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Treaty United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Kerry
20%
Draws
29%
Treaty United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kerry

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kerry lately — more wins on the board than Treaty United.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Kerry taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Kerry Clean Sheet 20%
Treaty United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kerry Treaty United
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.27 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Treaty United
3:1
Jul 3, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Kerry
2:1
Apr 17, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Treaty United
1:1
Mar 6, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Kerry
2:2
Jan 13, 2026 Club Friendly
Kerry vs Treaty United
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer Borden V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Treaty United Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Curtis C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 40 / 100
Treaty United 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kerry Treaty United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kerry Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Kerry found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Treaty United conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Kerry has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kerry VS Treaty United
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kerry

(Home)
18 Sept
Athlone
3 : 0
Kerry
11 Sept
Kerry
0 : 1
Bray
05 Sept
Longford
0 : 1
Kerry
28 Aug
Kerry
3 : 1
Treaty United
21 Aug
Kerry
1 : 1
UC Dublin
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Treaty United

(Away)
18 Sept
Bray
2 : 0
Treaty United
12 Sept
Longford
0 : 2
Treaty United
04 Sept
Treaty United
0 : 1
Wexford
28 Aug
Kerry
3 : 1
Treaty United
21 Aug
Treaty United
2 : 2
Cork City
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