Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kerry vs UC Dublin

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Mounthawk Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kerry play UC Dublin in the Division 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kerry averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. UC Dublin averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Kerry won 1, UC Dublin won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 19, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Kerry and 1.38 for UC Dublin. This points to a UC Dublin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Kerry
22%
Draws
47%
UC Dublin
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: UC Dublin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Kerry picked up more points recently compared to UC Dublin.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Kerry Clean Sheet 17%
UC Dublin Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kerry UC Dublin
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 13
Draws 9 5
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2026 Division 1
UC Dublin vs Kerry
0:1
Apr 10, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs UC Dublin
1:1
Feb 13, 2026 Division 1
UC Dublin vs Kerry
2:1
Sep 19, 2025 Division 1
UC Dublin vs Kerry
2:1
Jul 25, 2025 Division 1
Kerry vs UC Dublin
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer Britton M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

UC Dublin Compare

Top Goalscorer Smith H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 31 / 100
UC Dublin 45 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kerry UC Dublin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: UC Dublin or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kerry attacking → ← attacking UC Dublin

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kerry scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

UC Dublin let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Kerry went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

UC Dublin lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 44
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cork City22173243:1154
2UC Dublin22113836:2136
3Bray2297640:3034
4Cobh Ramblers2294925:3031
5Longford2277823:2728
6Wexford2276925:3027
7Kerry2267922:2725
8Athlone22661019:2724
9Finn Harps22571020:3722
10Treaty United22481021:3420