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KF Oriku vs Beselidhja Lezha

Albania Albania

First Division 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

KF Oriku play Beselidhja Lezha in the First Division 2022/2023. KF Oriku are favorites here. Recently, KF Oriku averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Beselidhja Lezha averaged 0.69 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, KF Oriku won 3, Beselidhja Lezha won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 11, 2023 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for KF Oriku and 0.51 for Beselidhja Lezha. This points to a KF Oriku double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
KF Oriku
15%
Draws
29%
Beselidhja Lezha
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: KF Oriku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • KF Oriku picked up more points recently compared to Beselidhja Lezha.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 0.51 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 57%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
KF Oriku Clean Sheet 30%
Beselidhja Lezha Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 51%
Second Half Goal 54%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric KF Oriku Beselidhja Lezha
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 4
Draws 2 8
Losses 18 20
Goals Scored 0.97 0.69
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2023 Kategoria e Parë
KF Oriku vs Beselidhja Lezha
1:0
Oct 15, 2022 Kategoria e Parë
Beselidhja Lezha vs KF Oriku
1:0
May 12, 2021 Kategoria e Parë
Beselidhja Lezha vs KF Oriku
1:0
Apr 10, 2021 Kategoria e Parë
KF Oriku vs Beselidhja Lezha
1:0
Mar 25, 2021 Kategoria e Parë
KF Oriku vs Beselidhja Lezha
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

KF Oriku Compare

Top Goalscorer Thioub T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Beselidhja Lezha Compare

Avg xG / game 0.12
Avg xA / game 0.07

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

KF Oriku 56 / 100
Beselidhja Lezha 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
KF Oriku Beselidhja Lezha

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KF Oriku Win (1)
Secondary Pick KF Oriku & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.5%
2.08
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

KF Oriku attacking → ← attacking Beselidhja Lezha

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

KF Oriku scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Beselidhja Lezha let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

KF Oriku went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Beselidhja Lezha lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 20
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.13
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Skenderbeu Korca261310337:1349
2Dinamo Tirana26145748:2347
3Flamurtari26137640:1646
4Tomori Berat26134929:2743
5Korabi Peshkopi26109732:2439
6Apolonia Fier26108831:3038
7Luzi26108831:2638
8Besa Kavaje26107932:2637
9Lushnja26881030:4232
10Burreli26710922:2931
11KF Oriku26931427:3330
12Turbina Cerrik26751424:4526
13Beselidhja Lezha26381517:4114
14Terbuni Puka26661416:4124