Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen

Scotland Scotland

League Cup Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock Logo

Kilmarnock

Sat, Sep 12, 2026
1 - 2
04:45 PM
Aberdeen Logo

Aberdeen

Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Happe D.
46'
Sub
Ntelo M. In: Olusanya T.
Out: Ntelo M.
46'
Sub
Daniels D. In: John-Jules T.
Out: Daniels D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Kilmarnock
35%
Draws
40%
Aberdeen
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aberdeen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Kilmarnock carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aberdeen's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Kilmarnock have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Aberdeen, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Kilmarnock Clean Sheet 11%
Aberdeen Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kilmarnock Aberdeen
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 15 13
Draws 4 5
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.67 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 League Cup
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
1:2
Sep 5, 2026 Premiership
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
0:0
Apr 25, 2026 Premiership
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
1:0
Jan 31, 2026 Premiership
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
3:0
Dec 14, 2025 Premiership
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kilmarnock Compare

Top Goalscorer John-Jules T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Aberdeen Compare

Top Goalscorer Nisbet K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kilmarnock 22 / 100
Aberdeen 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kilmarnock Aberdeen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberdeen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kilmarnock scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Aberdeen let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Kilmarnock stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kilmarnock VS Aberdeen
1 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Kilmarnock

(Home)
19 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 1
Hearts
15 Sept
Hibernian
0 : 1
Kilmarnock
12 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 2
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Aberdeen
0 : 0
Kilmarnock
02 Sept
Kilmarnock
0 : 1
St. Mirren
Page 1 of 6

Aberdeen

(Away)
19 Sept
Hibernian
1 : 1
Aberdeen
15 Sept
Motherwell
0 : 4
Aberdeen
12 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 2
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Aberdeen
0 : 0
Kilmarnock
02 Sept
Celtic
3 : 0
Aberdeen
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Stenhousemuir 1
Motherwell 0
Hearts 6
Inverness 2
Dunfermline 1
Ross County 2
Hibernian 1
Partick 0
Rangers 5
St. Mirren 1
Dundee Utd 0
Celtic 4
Kilmarnock 3
Ayr 2
Aberdeen 3
Dundee FC 0
Quarter-finals
Stenhousemuir 0
Hearts 3
Ross County 0
Hibernian 3
Rangers 3
Celtic 0
Kilmarnock 1
Aberdeen 2
Semi-finals
Hearts -
Hibernian -
Rangers -
Aberdeen -
Final
TBD -
TBD -