Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kilmarnock vs Ayr

Scotland Scotland

League Cup Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Stirton O.
Assist: McMann S.
33'
Tshibola A.
38'
Stirton O.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Kilmarnock
30%
Draws
31%
Ayr
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kilmarnock

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Kilmarnock carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Kilmarnock have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Kilmarnock, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Kilmarnock Clean Sheet 11%
Ayr Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kilmarnock Ayr
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 4 5
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.67 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 League Cup
Kilmarnock vs Ayr
3:2
Jul 4, 2025 Club Friendly
Kilmarnock vs Ayr
1:0
Jul 11, 2024 Club Friendly
Ayr vs Kilmarnock
3:2
Mar 11, 2022 Championship
Ayr vs Kilmarnock
1:3
Feb 9, 2022 Championship
Kilmarnock vs Ayr
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kilmarnock Compare

Top Goalscorer Hugill J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Schjonning-Larsen M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Ayr Compare

Top Goalscorer Stirton O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Taylor R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kilmarnock 30 / 100
Ayr 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kilmarnock Ayr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kilmarnock's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Ayr has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Kilmarnock stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kilmarnock VS Ayr
1 Goals Scored 1.25
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kilmarnock

(Home)
19 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 1
Hearts
15 Sept
Hibernian
0 : 1
Kilmarnock
12 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 2
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Aberdeen
0 : 0
Kilmarnock
02 Sept
Kilmarnock
0 : 1
St. Mirren
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Ayr

(Away)
18 Sept
Queen's Park
0 : 2
Ayr
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3
Inverness
05 Sept
Partick
1 : 0
Ayr
29 Aug
Ayr
1 : 1
Morton
22 Aug
Raith
2 : 0
Ayr
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Stenhousemuir 1
Motherwell 0
Hearts 6
Inverness 2
Dunfermline 1
Ross County 2
Hibernian 1
Partick 0
Rangers 5
St. Mirren 1
Dundee Utd 0
Celtic 4
Kilmarnock 3
Ayr 2
Aberdeen 3
Dundee FC 0
Quarter-finals
Stenhousemuir 0
Hearts 3
Ross County 0
Hibernian 3
Rangers 3
Celtic 0
Kilmarnock 1
Aberdeen 2
Semi-finals
Hearts -
Hibernian -
Rangers -
Aberdeen -
Final
TBD -
TBD -