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Kitara vs Police Prediction & H2H Stats

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 The Royals Park, Butema
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Kasumba U.
47' Event
Kaddu P.
60' Event
Kasumba U.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Kitara and Police finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Kitara
35%
Draws
27%
Police
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Kitara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Kitara's 1.57 goals per match outpaces what Police have produced (1.3).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Kitara Clean Sheet 20%
Police Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kitara Police
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 14 14
Draws 11 7
Losses 3 9
Goals Scored 1.57 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.71 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Premier League
Kitara vs Police
2:2
Nov 27, 2025 Premier League
Police vs Kitara
1:2
Mar 27, 2025 Premier League
Police vs Kitara
0:1
Oct 3, 2024 Premier League
Kitara vs Police
0:1
Apr 20, 2021 Premier League
Police vs Kitara
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kitara Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaddu P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kalema J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Kasumba U.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kitara 31 / 100
Police 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kitara Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kitara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kitara found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Kitara stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Police conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Kitara VS Police
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Kitara

(Home)
17 Sept
Express FC
1 : 1
Kitara
12 Sept
Kitara
2 : 0
Mogadishu City
06 Sept
Mogadishu City
1 : 2
Kitara
29 Aug
Villa
1 : 1
Kitara
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
16 Sept
Lugazi
0 : 2
Police
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
02 Sept
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Police
29 Aug
Police
1 : 0
Mbarara City
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)