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Kumamoto vs Oita Trinita - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J.League Cup Egao Kenko Stadium, Kumamoto
Kumamoto Logo

Kumamoto

2 - 0
FT
Oita Trinita Logo

Oita Trinita

Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Katori Y.
56' Event
Nagai S.
Assist: Negishi K.
59'
Sub
Sakurai Y. In: Aizawa D.
Out: Sakurai Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Kumamoto
35%
Draws
42%
Oita Trinita
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Oita Trinita

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Kumamoto have won more games recently than Oita Trinita.
  • 42% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Kumamoto have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Kumamoto, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Kumamoto Clean Sheet 28%
Oita Trinita Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kumamoto Oita Trinita
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 0.9 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2026 J.League Cup
Kumamoto vs Oita Trinita
2:0
Apr 29, 2026 J2/J3 League
Oita Trinita vs Kumamoto
0:1
Mar 1, 2026 J2/J3 League
Kumamoto vs Oita Trinita
3:1
Oct 26, 2025 J2 League
Kumamoto vs Oita Trinita
0:1
May 3, 2025 J2 League
Oita Trinita vs Kumamoto
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kumamoto Compare

Top Goalscorer Katori Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nagai S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Oita Trinita Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kumamoto 34 / 100
Oita Trinita 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kumamoto Oita Trinita

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Oita Trinita Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oita Trinita's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Kumamoto remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Kumamoto's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Kumamoto VS Oita Trinita
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Kumamoto

(Home)
11 Oct
Kumamoto
0 : 2
Ehime
02 Oct
Reilac Shiga
0 : 0
Kumamoto
29 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 1
Kawasaki Frontale
26 Sept
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0 : 1
Kumamoto
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0
Matsumoto Yamaga
Page 1 of 6

Oita Trinita

(Away)
10 Oct
Yokohama FC
1 : 2
Oita Trinita
03 Oct
Oita Trinita
2 : 1
Montedio Yamagata
26 Sept
Oita Trinita
1 : 1
Fujieda MYFC
19 Sept
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
1 : 1
Oita Trinita
12 Sept
Omiya Ardija
0 : 0
Oita Trinita
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Tochigi City 0
Matsumoto Yamaga 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
Kanazawa 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds 3
Toyama 2
Yokohama FC 2
Gifu 1
Okayama 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Kumamoto 0
Chiba 2
Iwata 4
Avispa Fukuoka 2
FC Osaka 1
Verdy 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka 2
Fujieda MYFC 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 0
Gainare Tottori 2
FC Tokyo 2
Ehime 0
Mito 7
Fukushima United 0
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/16-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Matsumoto Yamaga -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Urawa Reds -
Yokohama FC -
Okayama -
Nagoya Grampus -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Iwata -
Avispa Fukuoka -
Sagan Tosu -
Cerezo Osaka -
Gainare Tottori -
FC Tokyo -
Mito -
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Machida Zelvia 1
Kyoto 0
Kashiwa Reysol 5
Gamba Osaka 4
1/64-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Vanraure 0
Tochigi City 2
Matsumoto Yamaga 4
Shonan Bellmare 3
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Albirex Niigata 2
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Kanazawa 2
Imabari 1
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 0
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Toyama 2
Ryukyu 2
Yokohama FC 3
Gifu 1
Tokushima 0
Okayama -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Iwaki 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Kumamoto 2
Oita Trinita 0
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Chiba 2
SC Sagamihara 0
Iwata 3
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
FC Osaka 3
Kofu 0
Reilac Shiga 0
Verdy 1
Nara Club 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Renofa Yamaguchi 0
Fujieda MYFC 2
Kochi United 0
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Omiya Ardija 1
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Ehime 1
Blaublitz 0
Nagano Parceiro 0
Mito 1
Fukushima United 4
Vegalta Sendai 3
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -