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Kumla vs Grebbestad

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kumla play Grebbestad in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kumla averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. Grebbestad averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Kumla won 3, Grebbestad won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 24, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Kumla and 1.63 for Grebbestad. This points to a Grebbestad double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Kumla
16%
Draws
44%
Grebbestad
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Grebbestad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Kumla picked up more points recently compared to Grebbestad.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Kumla Clean Sheet 14%
Grebbestad Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kumla Grebbestad
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 10 4
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.13 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 24, 2026 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Grebbestad vs Kumla
2:1
Apr 3, 2026 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Kumla vs Grebbestad
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Kumla vs Grebbestad
3:2
May 10, 2025 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Grebbestad vs Kumla
0:2
Sep 14, 2024 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Grebbestad vs Kumla
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kumla Compare

Top Goalscorer Damstrom R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Andersson Segerlind J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Grebbestad Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kumla 39 / 100
Grebbestad 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kumla Grebbestad

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Grebbestad or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kumla attacking → ← attacking Grebbestad

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kumla scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Grebbestad let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Kumla went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Grebbestad lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 43
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Husqvarna15123036:1039
2Skara14103129:1733
3IFK Skovde1491430:1928
4Grebbestad1481527:2025
5Ahlafors1465331:1923
6Stenungsunds IF1453624:2218
7Motala1453618:1718
8Kumla1445515:1617
9Herrestads AIF1445523:2617
10Vanersborgs FK1444619:2416
11Lidkoping1533916:3312
12Karlstad II1424816:2610
13Tord1408615:268
14Vanersborgs IF14221016:408