Sport Picks

Stadium Background

KuPS vs Mariehamn

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Vare Areena, Kuopio
KuPS Logo

KuPS

2 - 4
FT
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Hamalainen T.
6' Event
Larsson A.
Assist: Svedberg J.
11' Event
Engvall G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mariehamn in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mariehamn.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
KuPS
20%
Draws
42%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to KuPS lately — more wins on the board than Mariehamn.
  • Mariehamn are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
KuPS Clean Sheet 16%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric KuPS Mariehamn
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 14 8
Draws 10 6
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.42 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Veikkausliiga
KuPS vs Mariehamn
2:4
May 16, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs KuPS
1:1
Mar 14, 2026 Club Friendly
KuPS vs Mariehamn
2:0
Jun 18, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs KuPS
1:0
Apr 23, 2025 Veikkausliiga
KuPS vs Mariehamn
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

KuPS Compare

Top Goalscorer Engvall G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Parzyszek P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mariehamn Compare

Top Goalscorer Richtner L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Larsson A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

KuPS 28 / 100
Mariehamn 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
KuPS Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

KuPS scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Mariehamn has conceded goals in 84% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

KuPS went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

KuPS VS Mariehamn
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

KuPS

(Home)
19 Sept
VPS
0 : 2
KuPS
13 Sept
KuPS
0 : 0
HJK
08 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1
KuPS
31 Aug
Inter Turku
1 : 0
KuPS
27 Aug
KuPS
1 : 0
Shamrock Rovers
Page 1 of 7

Mariehamn

(Away)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)