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Kuressaare vs Kalju Prediction & H2H Stats

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Kuressaare Linnastaadion, Kuressaare
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Mannilaan M.
Assist: Orlov M.
33'
Mashchenko D.
49' Event
Ivanov N.

AI Match Summary

Kalju in this Meistriliiga matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kalju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Kuressaare
20%
Draws
44%
Kalju
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kalju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Kalju have won more games recently than Kuressaare.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Kalju have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Kuressaare Clean Sheet 10%
Kalju Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kuressaare Kalju
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 9 16
Draws 5 6
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.41 2.36
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Kalju
0:0
May 17, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Kalju
0:2
Mar 21, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Kuressaare
4:0
Oct 25, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Kalju
0:1
Aug 31, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Kuressaare
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kuressaare Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Kalju Compare

Top Goalscorer Mannilaan M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ivanov N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kuressaare 34 / 100
Kalju 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kuressaare Kalju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kalju Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kalju let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Kuressaare went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Kalju has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kuressaare VS Kalju
2.5 Goals Scored 2.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
88% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kuressaare

(Home)
18 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 0
Kuressaare
13 Sept
Kuressaare
1 : 3
Tammeka Tartu
09 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Kuressaare
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1
Narva
29 Aug
Kuressaare
2 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
Page 1 of 6

Kalju

(Away)
20 Sept
Tammeka Tartu
1 : 3
Kalju
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0
Narva
08 Sept
Kalju
1 : 2
Nomme Utd
05 Sept
Flora
2 : 1
Kalju
30 Aug
Kalju
2 : 3
Levadia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)