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Kuressaare vs Narva

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Kuressaare Linnastaadion, Kuressaare
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Vahermagi J.
40'
Kondrattsev S.
41' Event
Jurisoo T.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Kuressaare and Narva finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kuressaare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Kuressaare
35%
Draws
19%
Narva
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Kuressaare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Kuressaare carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Kuressaare a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Kuressaare Clean Sheet 13%
Narva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kuressaare Narva
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 5 4
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1.47 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.6 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Narva
3:1
Jun 16, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Narva
0:0
Apr 18, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Kuressaare
1:2
Feb 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Kuressaare vs Narva
2:2
Sep 20, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Narva
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kuressaare Compare

Top Goalscorer Jurisoo T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sinilaid S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Narva Compare

Top Goalscorer Agaptsev S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kuressaare 84 / 100
Narva 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kuressaare Narva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kuressaare Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Narva has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Kuressaare stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Narva registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kuressaare VS Narva
2.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kuressaare

(Home)
18 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 0
Kuressaare
13 Sept
Kuressaare
1 : 3
Tammeka Tartu
09 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Kuressaare
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1
Narva
29 Aug
Kuressaare
2 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
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Narva

(Away)
20 Sept
Narva
1 : 1
Levadia
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0
Narva
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2
Flora
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1
Narva
30 Aug
Narva
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)