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Kuressaare vs Tammeka Tartu

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Kuressaare Linnastaadion, Kuressaare
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Sub
Kangaslahti O. In: Vaino M.
Out: Kangaslahti O.
33' Event
Talu R.
36' Event
Marin P.
Assist: Lisboa Thomas

AI Match Summary

Kuressaare in this Meistriliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kuressaare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Kuressaare
39%
Draws
30%
Tammeka Tartu
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Tammeka Tartu have won more games recently than Kuressaare.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Kuressaare Clean Sheet 19%
Tammeka Tartu Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kuressaare Tammeka Tartu
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 13
Draws 5 3
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Meistriliiga
Tammeka Tartu vs Kuressaare
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Tammeka Tartu
3:2
Sep 26, 2025 Meistriliiga
Tammeka Tartu vs Kuressaare
0:1
Jul 11, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Tammeka Tartu
0:2
Jun 17, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Tammeka Tartu
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kuressaare Compare

Top Goalscorer Talu R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kivi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Tammeka Tartu Compare

Top Goalscorer Marin P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Koskor T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kuressaare 32 / 100
Tammeka Tartu 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kuressaare Tammeka Tartu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kuressaare found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Tammeka Tartu's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Kuressaare went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kuressaare VS Tammeka Tartu
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kuressaare

(Home)
19 Jul
Kuressaare
0 : 0
Kalju
11 Jul
Nomme Utd
3 : 2
Kuressaare
02 Jul
Kuressaare
0 : 3
Flora
26 Jun
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Kuressaare
16 Jun
Kuressaare
0 : 0
Narva
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Tammeka Tartu

(Away)
11 Jul
Parnu JK Vaprus
5 : 1
Tammeka Tartu
05 Jul
Tammeka Tartu
2 : 1
Harju JK Laagri
21 Jun
Tammeka Tartu
1 : 0
Narva
17 Jun
Kalju
1 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
13 Jun
Tammeka Tartu
0 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Levadia19144149:1646
2Flora19120739:2136
3Kalju20105533:1635
4Paide Linnameeskond2095632:2832
5Parnu JK Vaprus20821028:3826
6Tammeka Tartu1882821:2626
7Nomme Utd20811139:4625
8Harju JK Laagri20811130:3425
9Kuressaare20531219:3318
10Narva20411515:4713
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)