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Kursk vs Kaluga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

Russian Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Sychev Y.
Assist: Balkizov A.
21' Event
Mamkin I.
Assist: Kozyrev V.
54' Event
Sychev Y.
Assist: Akimov E.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Kursk
30%
Draws
47%
Kaluga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kaluga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kursk come out ahead of Kaluga on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Kaluga taking it.
  • Kursk have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Kaluga, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Kaluga have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Kursk Clean Sheet 17%
Kaluga Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kursk Kaluga
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.21 1
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 Russian Cup
Kursk vs Kaluga
1:2
Sep 14, 2025 FNL 2 - Division A Silver
Kursk vs Kaluga
1:2
Aug 2, 2025 FNL 2 - Division A Silver
Kaluga vs Kursk
2:1
May 21, 2025 FNL 2 - Division A Silver
Kursk vs Kaluga
0:2
Apr 5, 2025 FNL 2 - Division A Silver
Kaluga vs Kursk
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kursk Compare

Top Goalscorer Mamkin I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Kaluga Compare

Top Goalscorer Sychev Y.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kursk 20 / 100
Kaluga 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kursk Kaluga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kaluga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kursk's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Kaluga let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Kaluga has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kursk VS Kaluga
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kursk

(Home)
24 Oct
Spartak Tambov
2 : 0
Kursk
18 Oct
Saturn Ramenskoye
5 : 1
Kursk
10 Oct
Kursk
0 : 0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
04 Oct
Ryazan
4 : 0
Kursk
26 Sept
Kursk
1 : 1
R. Volgograd 2
Page 1 of 6

Kaluga

(Away)
24 Oct
Alania Vladikavkaz
2 : 1
Kaluga
18 Oct
D. Bryansk
1 : 4
Kaluga
14 Oct
Yenisey
2 : 0
Kaluga
10 Oct
Kaluga
0 : 0
Mashuk
04 Oct
Rodina Moscow 2
3 : 0
Kaluga
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Ilpar FC 1
Metallurg Asha 0
TBD -
Saratov -
Khimik -
TBD -
TBD -
Nosta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Leningradets -
Zvezda St Peterburg -
TBD -
TBD -
Luki-Energiya -
Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie 0
FK Tosno 3
TBD -
Cherepovets -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ural -
Kristall 2
Krasnoye Znamya 3
TBD -
D. Bryansk -
Strogino Moscow -
TBD -
TBD -
Vladimir -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
SKA Khabarovsk -
Amkar -
TBD -
TBD -
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod -
Bomik 1
Broke Boys 2
TBD -
Kirov -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kamaz -
FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye -
TBD -
Anzhi 1
Izberbash 5
Angust Nazran -
TBD -
TBD -
Maykop -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Yenisey -
TBD -
Kursk -
Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk 3
Salyut-Belgorod 0
Kaluga -
TBD -
TBD -
Iskra Smolensk -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ufa -
Astrakhan -
TBD -
TBD -
Mashuk -
Nart Cherkessk -
TBD -
TBD -
Dynamo Stavropol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Pari Nizhny Novgorod -
Shinnik Yaroslavl -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Torpedo Moscow -
FC Volgar-Astrakhan -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Pobeda -
Spartak Nalchik -
TBD -
TBD -
Alania Vladikavkaz -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ulyanovsk -
FC Murom -
TBD -
TBD -
M. Lipetsk -
TBD -
FK Shumbrat Saransk -
2Drots 2
FC Oryol 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Veles Moscow -
Chita 3
FC Irkutsk 0
TBD -
FC Chertanovo Moscow -
Temp Barnaul 3
KDV Tomsk 4
TBD -
Sibir Novosibirsk -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Neftekhimik -
Tekstilshtik -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal Tula -
SKA Rostov-on-Don 3
Penza 2
TBD -
Spartak Tambov -
Kvant Obninsk -
TBD -
TBD -
Ryazan -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
S. Kostroma -
Irtysh Omsk -
TBD -
TBD -
Saturn Ramenskoye -
Anri Vladivostok 1
Dynamo Barnaul 2
TBD -
Dynamo Vladivostok -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelyabinsk -
FC 10 3
Kosmos 2
TBD -
Dynamo Petersburg -
Dynamo Vologda -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Tver -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
PFC Sochi -
Volna Nizhegorodskaya -
TBD -
TBD -
Tyumen -
FK Izhevsk -
TBD -
TBD -
Torpedo Miass -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
R. Volgograd -
1/16-finals
Ilpar FC 1
Saratov 3
Khimik 2
Nosta 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Leningradets -
Zvezda St Peterburg 1
Luki-Energiya 2
FK Tosno 0
Cherepovets 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ural -
Krasnoye Znamya 2
D. Bryansk 0
Strogino Moscow 0
Vladimir 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
SKA Khabarovsk -
Amkar 2
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 0
Broke Boys 0
Kirov 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kamaz -
FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye 0
Izberbash 3
Angust Nazran 0
Maykop 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Yenisey -
Kursk 2
Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk 1
Kaluga 5
Iskra Smolensk 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ufa -
Astrakhan 2
Mashuk 1
Nart Cherkessk 1
Dynamo Stavropol 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Pari Nizhny Novgorod -
Shinnik Yaroslavl -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Torpedo Moscow -
FC Volgar-Astrakhan 2
FK Pobeda 0
Spartak Nalchik 4
Alania Vladikavkaz 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ulyanovsk -
FC Murom 1
M. Lipetsk 0
FK Shumbrat Saransk 1
2Drots 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Veles Moscow -
Chita 0
FC Chertanovo Moscow 3
KDV Tomsk 3
Sibir Novosibirsk 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Neftekhimik -
Tekstilshtik -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal Tula -
SKA Rostov-on-Don 1
Spartak Tambov 2
Kvant Obninsk 0
Ryazan 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
S. Kostroma -
Irtysh Omsk 2
Saturn Ramenskoye 1
Dynamo Barnaul 1
Dynamo Vladivostok 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelyabinsk -
FC 10 1
Dynamo Petersburg 2
Dynamo Vologda 2
FK Tver 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
PFC Sochi -
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2
Tyumen 1
FK Izhevsk 1
Torpedo Miass 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
R. Volgograd -
1/8-finals
Saratov 2
Nosta 1
TBD -
Leningradets -
Luki-Energiya 4
Cherepovets 1
TBD -
Ural -
Krasnoye Znamya 1
Vladimir 0
TBD -
SKA Khabarovsk -
Amkar 4
Kirov 5
TBD -
Kamaz -
Izberbash 1
Maykop 2
TBD -
Yenisey -
Kursk 1
Kaluga 2
TBD -
Ufa -
Astrakhan 0
Dynamo Stavropol 1
TBD -
Pari Nizhny Novgorod -
Shinnik Yaroslavl -
TBD -
TBD -
Torpedo Moscow -
FC Volgar-Astrakhan 3
Spartak Nalchik 0
TBD -
Ulyanovsk -
FC Murom 3
2Drots 0
TBD -
Veles Moscow -
FC Chertanovo Moscow 4
KDV Tomsk 2
TBD -
Neftekhimik -
Tekstilshtik -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal Tula -
Spartak Tambov 1
Ryazan 2
TBD -
S. Kostroma -
Irtysh Omsk 0
Dynamo Barnaul 5
TBD -
Chelyabinsk -
Dynamo Petersburg 2
Dynamo Vologda 1
TBD -
PFC Sochi -
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1
Torpedo Miass 0
TBD -
R. Volgograd -
Quarter-finals
Saratov 1
Leningradets 2
Luki-Energiya 2
Ural 1
Krasnoye Znamya 0
SKA Khabarovsk 4
Kirov 1
Kamaz 0
Maykop 1
Yenisey 2
Kaluga 1
Ufa 0
Dynamo Stavropol 1
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2
Torpedo Moscow 0
FC Volgar-Astrakhan 0
Ulyanovsk 1
FC Murom 1
Veles Moscow 0
FC Chertanovo Moscow 2
Neftekhimik 1
Tekstilshtik 1
Arsenal Tula 0
Ryazan 0
S. Kostroma 2
Dynamo Barnaul 0
Chelyabinsk 2
Dynamo Petersburg 2
PFC Sochi 0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2
R. Volgograd 0
Semi-finals
Leningradets 2
Luki-Energiya 0
SKA Khabarovsk 2
Kirov 0
Yenisey 2
Kaluga 0
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 4
Shinnik Yaroslavl 0
Ulyanovsk 1
FC Murom 0
FC Chertanovo Moscow 2
Tekstilshtik 1
S. Kostroma 1
Chelyabinsk 0
Dynamo Petersburg 1
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2
Final
Leningradets -
SKA Khabarovsk -
Yenisey -
Pari Nizhny Novgorod -
Ulyanovsk -
FC Chertanovo Moscow -
S. Kostroma -
Volna Nizhegorodskaya -