Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kwara vs Lobi

Nigeria Nigeria

NPFL 2024/2025 Kwara Sports Stadium, Ilorin
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Alalade W.
11' Event
Aimufua J.
45'
Sub
Ibrahim Y. In: Alao M.
Out: Ibrahim Y.

AI Match Summary

The NPFL 2024/2025 game between Kwara and Lobi finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kwara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Kwara
39%
Draws
30%
Lobi
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kwara come out ahead of Lobi on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular NPFL 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lobi have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Kwara Clean Sheet 20%
Lobi Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kwara Lobi
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2025 NPFL
Kwara vs Lobi
4:0
Nov 30, 2024 NPFL
Lobi vs Kwara
1:0
Jun 15, 2024 NPFL
Lobi vs Kwara
4:3
Jan 7, 2024 NPFL
Kwara vs Lobi
0:2
Jun 1, 2022 NPFL
Lobi vs Kwara
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kwara Compare

Top Goalscorer Aimufua J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Alalade W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Lobi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kwara 32 / 100
Lobi 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kwara Lobi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lobi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Kwara remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Kwara's goal record stands at 58% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Kwara VS Lobi
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.67
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 17%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kwara

(Home)
01 Jun
Kwara
0 : 1
Sokoto United
24 May
Bayelsa United
4 : 0
Kwara
10 May
Kwara
2 : 0
Enyimba International
03 May
Niger Tornadoes
2 : 2
Kwara
19 Apr
Kwara
2 : 1
Barau
Page 1 of 7

Lobi

(Away)
28 Mar
City FC Abuja
0 : 1
Lobi
25 Mar
Lobi
1 : 0
Kada Warriors
14 Mar
Mighty Jets
1 : 0
Lobi
07 Mar
Lobi
2 : 0
ABS
28 Feb
Basira
2 : 0
Lobi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Remo Stars382251149:3171
2Rivers United3818101035:2964
3Abia Warriors381861443:4060
4Ikorodu City381781360:4559
5Bendel3815111239:3356
6Enyimba International3814131138:3555
7Plateau United381691340:3854
8Shooting381591439:3854
9Kano Pillars381581544:4553
10Rangers International3814101442:3452
11Bayelsa United3813131239:3652
12Nasarawa United3814101440:4152
13Niger Tornadoes381491540:4651
14Kwara381481638:3650
15Katsina Utd381481630:3650
16El Kanemi Warriors3812131334:4149
17Heartland FC3812121433:3448
18Akwa United381281835:3944
19Sunshine Stars381181934:5141
20Lobi386102229:5628
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)