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Kwara vs Lobi Prediction & H2H Stats

Nigeria Nigeria

NPFL 2024/2025 Kwara Sports Stadium, Ilorin
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Alalade W.
11' Event
Aimufua J.
45'
Sub
Ibrahim Y. In: Alao M.
Out: Ibrahim Y.

AI Match Summary

The NPFL 2024/2025 game between Kwara and Lobi finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kwara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Kwara
15%
Draws
51%
Lobi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lobi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kwara come out ahead of Lobi on wins alone.
  • Model gives Kwara a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPFL 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lobi have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Kwara Clean Sheet 20%
Lobi Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kwara Lobi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 6 6
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.07 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2025 NPFL
Kwara vs Lobi
4:0
Nov 30, 2024 NPFL
Lobi vs Kwara
1:0
Jun 15, 2024 NPFL
Lobi vs Kwara
4:3
Jan 7, 2024 NPFL
Kwara vs Lobi
0:2
Jun 1, 2022 NPFL
Lobi vs Kwara
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kwara Compare

Top Goalscorer Aimufua J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Alalade W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Lobi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kwara 36 / 100
Lobi 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kwara Lobi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lobi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Kwara found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Kwara stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kwara VS Lobi
1.38 Goals Scored 0.67
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.33
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kwara

(Home)
27 Sept
Kun Khalifa
1 : 0
Kwara
23 Sept
Kwara
2 : 1
Nasarawa United
20 Sept
Warri Wolves
1 : 0
Kwara
13 Sept
Kwara
3 : 0
Katsina Utd
06 Sept
Plateau United
1 : 0
Kwara
Page 1 of 6

Lobi

(Away)
28 Mar
City FC Abuja
0 : 1
Lobi
25 Mar
Lobi
1 : 0
Kada Warriors
14 Mar
Mighty Jets
1 : 0
Lobi
07 Mar
Lobi
2 : 0
ABS
28 Feb
Basira
2 : 0
Lobi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Remo Stars 38 22 5 11 49:31 71
2 Rivers United 38 18 10 10 35:29 64
3 Abia Warriors 38 18 6 14 43:40 60
4 Ikorodu City 38 17 8 13 60:45 59
5 Bendel 38 15 11 12 39:33 56
6 Enyimba International 38 14 13 11 38:35 55
7 Plateau United 38 16 9 13 40:38 54
8 Shooting 38 15 9 14 39:38 54
9 Kano Pillars 38 15 8 15 44:45 53
10 Rangers International 38 14 10 14 42:34 52
11 Bayelsa United 38 13 13 12 39:36 52
12 Nasarawa United 38 14 10 14 40:41 52
13 Niger Tornadoes 38 14 9 15 40:46 51
14 Kwara 38 14 8 16 38:36 50
15 Katsina Utd 38 14 8 16 30:36 50
16 El Kanemi Warriors 38 12 13 13 34:41 49
17 Heartland FC 38 12 12 14 33:34 48
18 Akwa United 38 12 8 18 35:39 44
19 Sunshine Stars 38 11 8 19 34:51 41
20 Lobi 38 6 10 22 29:56 28
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)