Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Sub
Rafael Elias In: Honda F.
Out: Rafael Elias
28'
Ohata A.
35'
Ishiwatari N.

AI Match Summary

Cerezo Osaka in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cerezo Osaka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Kyoto
6%
Draws
90%
Cerezo Osaka
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cerezo Osaka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Cerezo Osaka have won more games recently than Kyoto.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Cerezo Osaka taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Cerezo Osaka have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Kyoto Clean Sheet 10%
Cerezo Osaka Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kyoto Cerezo Osaka
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 16
Draws 3 1
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 0.88 2.38
Goals Conceded 2.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto
3:0
Mar 14, 2026 J1 League
Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto
1:2
May 21, 2025 J.League Cup
Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka
1:4
May 3, 2025 J1 League
Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kyoto Compare

Top Goalscorer Marco Tulio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Cerezo Osaka Compare

Top Goalscorer Sakata R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tanaka S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kyoto 10 / 100
Cerezo Osaka 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kyoto Cerezo Osaka

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Kyoto's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Cerezo Osaka conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Kyoto has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kyoto VS Cerezo Osaka
0.88 Goals Scored 2.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121