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Stadium Background

Kyustendil vs Chavdar Etropole

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-West game between Kyustendil and Chavdar Etropole finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kyustendil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Kyustendil
20%
Draws
30%
Chavdar Etropole
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kyustendil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Kyustendil carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Kyustendil taking it.
  • Regular Third League - South-West form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Kyustendil Clean Sheet 16%
Chavdar Etropole Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kyustendil Chavdar Etropole
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 9 1
Losses 12 24
Goals Scored 1.18 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.33 2.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Chavdar Etropole
3:1
Apr 20, 2024 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Chavdar Etropole
3:0
Sep 30, 2023 Third League - South-West
Chavdar Etropole vs Kyustendil
2:1
May 6, 2023 Third League - South-West
Chavdar Etropole vs Kyustendil
2:1
Mar 25, 2023 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Chavdar Etropole
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kyustendil 57 / 100
Chavdar Etropole 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kyustendil Chavdar Etropole

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kyustendil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chavdar Etropole has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Kyustendil stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Chavdar Etropole registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kyustendil VS Chavdar Etropole
0.75 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Kyustendil

(Home)
12 Sept
Kyustendil
0 : 1
Pirin Razlog
05 Sept
Natsional Sofia
1 : 1
Kyustendil
29 Aug
Kyustendil
3 : 1
Chavdar Etropole
22 Aug
CSKA Sofia III
1 : 1
Kyustendil
15 Aug
Kyustendil
0 : 1
Balkan Botevgrad
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Chavdar Etropole

(Away)
12 Sept
Slavia Sofia 2
4 : 0
Chavdar Etropole
05 Sept
Chavdar Etropole
1 : 4
Botev Ihtiman
29 Aug
Kyustendil
3 : 1
Chavdar Etropole
22 Aug
Chavdar Etropole
4 : 2
Septemvri Simitli
15 Aug
Strumska Slava
2 : 1
Chavdar Etropole
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