Sport Picks
Kyzylzhar vs Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakhstan
Premier League Karasai Stadium, Petropavl 
Match Events
10'
10'
Kozlenko A.
21'
21'
Agimanov T.
27'
27'
Pertsukh Y.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Kyzylzhar and Ertis Pavlodar finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
28%
50%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Kyzylzhar and Ertis Pavlodar have been evenly matched lately, statistically speaking.
- Ertis Pavlodar are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Kyzylzhar Clean Sheet 17%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kyzylzhar | Ertis Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 15 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 2 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.00 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 29, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kyzylzhar
1:2
Mar 20, 2026 Premier League
Kyzylzhar vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:2
Sep 19, 2020 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kyzylzhar
0:0
May 20, 2020 Premier League
Kyzylzhar vs Ertis Pavlodar
0:0
Mar 14, 2020 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kyzylzhar
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kyzylzhar Compare
Top Goalscorer Muldinov T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Beugre E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Top Goalscorer Mbodj M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Turlybek M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kyzylzhar 23 / 100
Ertis Pavlodar 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kyzylzhar Ertis Pavlodar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ERT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Ertis Pavlodar conceded in 81% of 26 recent games.
Ertis Pavlodar's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Kyzylzhar's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Kyzylzhar VS Ertis Pavlodar
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Kyzylzhar
(Home) 18 Jul
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1 Tobol
04 Jul
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1 Yelimay Semey
27 Jun
Yelimay Semey
2 : 0 Kyzylzhar
21 Jun
Kyzylzhar
2 : 4 Kairat Almaty
17 Jun
Kairat Almaty
3 : 0 Kyzylzhar
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1 Tobol
04 Jul
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1 Yelimay Semey
21 Jun
Kyzylzhar
2 : 4 Kairat Almaty
28 May
Kyzylzhar
3 : 2 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
17 May
Kyzylzhar
1 : 2 Altai
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Ertis Pavlodar
(Away) 11 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1 Zhenis
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
28 Jun
Ertis Pavlodar
1 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
20 Jun
Zhenis
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
14 Jun
FC Astana
2 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 6
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
20 Jun
Zhenis
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
14 Jun
FC Astana
2 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
22 May
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
09 May
Tobol
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 37:13 | 42 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:12 | 40 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 24:24 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Astana | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 5 | Ulytau | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 15:16 | 27 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 7 | Aktobe | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22:18 | 25 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Tobol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20:26 | 19 |
| 10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 14:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Atyrau | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13:16 | 18 |
| 12 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21:27 | 18 |
| 13 | Kaspij Aktau | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 16:23 | 18 |
| 14 | Altai | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 15 | Kyzylzhar | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 18:26 | 16 |
| 16 | Ertis Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14:22 | 11 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)