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La Luz vs Atenas

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Martirena F.
22' Event
Arzamendia L.
90' Event
Vega D.

AI Match Summary

La Luz in this Segunda Division matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored La Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
La Luz
40%
Draws
29%
Atenas
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Atenas have won more games recently than La Luz.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Segunda Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
La Luz Clean Sheet 68%
Atenas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric La Luz Atenas
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 14
Draws 15 6
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 0.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 1 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Segunda Division
Atenas vs La Luz
4:0
Apr 4, 2026 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Atenas
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Segunda Division
Atenas vs La Luz
2:3
Jun 24, 2025 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Atenas
1:1
Nov 2, 2024 Segunda Division
Atenas vs La Luz
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

La Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Martirena F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vega D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Atenas Compare

Top Goalscorer Arzamendia L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

La Luz 42 / 100
Atenas 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
La Luz Atenas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: La Luz scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Atenas has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: La Luz remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

La Luz VS Atenas
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Fenix632113:711
2Huracan FC62409:610
3Uruguay Montevideo FC62317:59
4Cerrito62318:89
5La Luz61415:67
6Atenas61145:114
7Tacuarembo60335:93
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Club Oriental De Futbol64118:513
2Plaza Colonia63309:212
3Colon62318:59
4Rentistas62316:59
5Miramar61233:75
6Paysandu FC61144:74
7River Plate Montevideo61146:134