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La Luz vs Plaza Colonia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

La Luz host Plaza Colonia in the Segunda Division. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: La Luz at 0.9 goals for, 1.1 against; Plaza Colonia at 1.34 for, 0.9 against. Head-to-head, La Luz have won 1 to Plaza Colonia's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Jul 4, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.00 vs 1.19, favoring Plaza Colonia. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
La Luz
20%
Draws
29%
Plaza Colonia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: La Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Plaza Colonia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Segunda Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
La Luz Clean Sheet 20%
Plaza Colonia Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric La Luz Plaza Colonia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 14
Draws 12 7
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Segunda Division
Plaza Colonia vs La Luz
1:0
Sep 25, 2024 Segunda Division
Plaza Colonia vs La Luz
2:0
Jun 9, 2024 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Plaza Colonia
2:1
Oct 22, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
La Luz vs Plaza Colonia
1:1
Mar 17, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Plaza Colonia vs La Luz
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

La Luz 31 / 100
Plaza Colonia 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
La Luz Plaza Colonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick La Luz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Plaza Colonia let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: La Luz stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

La Luz scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

La Luz VS Plaza Colonia
1 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

La Luz

(Home)
04 Oct
La Luz
3 : 2
River Plate Montevideo
27 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 2
La Luz
19 Sept
La Luz
0 : 1
Atenas
12 Sept
Paysandu FC
0 : 1
La Luz
04 Sept
La Luz
1 : 3
Huracan FC
Page 1 of 6

Plaza Colonia

(Away)
04 Oct
Plaza Colonia
1 : 3
Cerrito
30 Sept
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1
Plaza Colonia
27 Sept
Atenas
0 : 0
Plaza Colonia
19 Sept
Plaza Colonia
1 : 1
Paysandu FC
16 Sept
Rentistas
2 : 1
Plaza Colonia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atenas 21 12 4 5 30:18 40
2 Rentistas 21 9 6 6 26:23 33
3 Club Oriental De Futbol 21 8 8 5 29:22 32
4 Plaza Colonia 21 9 5 7 26:21 32
5 River Plate Montevideo 21 8 6 7 31:26 30
6 Colon 21 8 6 7 20:23 30
7 Fenix 21 7 8 6 27:24 29
8 Cerrito 21 7 8 6 27:24 29
9 La Luz 21 7 6 8 19:24 27
10 Huracan FC 21 7 5 9 22:28 26
11 Paysandu FC 21 7 4 10 26:28 25
12 Miramar 21 6 7 8 23:26 25
13 Tacuarembo 21 6 6 9 16:23 24
14 Uruguay Montevideo FC 21 4 5 12 19:31 17
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya 2027 (Apertura)