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La Palma CF vs Ciudad de Lucena

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Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

La Palma CF play Ciudad de Lucena in the Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2024/2025. Ciudad de Lucena are favorites here. Recently, La Palma CF averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Ciudad de Lucena averaged 2.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. In past meetings, La Palma CF won 2, Ciudad de Lucena won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 6, 2025 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for La Palma CF and 1.68 for Ciudad de Lucena. This points to a Ciudad de Lucena double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
La Palma CF
18%
Draws
57%
Ciudad de Lucena
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Ciudad de Lucena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • La Palma CF picked up more points recently compared to Ciudad de Lucena.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.68 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
La Palma CF Clean Sheet 13%
Ciudad de Lucena Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric La Palma CF Ciudad de Lucena
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 6 24
Draws 10 7
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 1.03 2.14
Goals Conceded 1.7 0.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
La Palma CF vs Ciudad de Lucena
3:2
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs La Palma CF
4:0
Mar 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs La Palma CF
1:0
Oct 29, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
La Palma CF vs Ciudad de Lucena
1:0
Apr 4, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
La Palma CF vs Ciudad de Lucena
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

La Palma CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Barrera S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vargas D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Ciudad de Lucena Compare

Top Goalscorer Cascajo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barroso S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

La Palma CF 25 / 100
Ciudad de Lucena 54 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
La Palma CF Ciudad de Lucena

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ciudad de Lucena Win (2)
Secondary Pick Ciudad de Lucena & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

La Palma CF attacking → ← attacking Ciudad de Lucena

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

La Palma CF scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Ciudad de Lucena let in goals in 39% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

La Palma CF went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ciudad de Lucena lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 79
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Puente Genil342011363:2471
2Ciudad de Lucena34215849:2068
3CD Utrera34179848:2660
4Atletico Central34178946:2759
5Tomares UD341510945:3255
6Bollullos341661241:3454
7Pozoblanco3414101041:3652
8Atl. Onubense (Huelva B)341481241:3550
9San Roque de Lepe3412101229:3146
10AD Ceuta B3411131041:3846
11Cordoba B341015934:3645
12Conil341281441:4044
13Sevilla C3410111332:4041
14Coria C.F.34991634:4836
15AD Cartaya348111531:5335
16La Palma CF346111733:5729
17Atletico Espeleno345101930:5725
18Inter Sevilla34372425:7016