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Lagarto vs Amadense

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Sergipano 2018
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Match Events

45' Event
Daisson
76' Event
Moacir

AI Match Summary

Lagarto in this Campeonato Sergipano 2018 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lagarto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Lagarto
15%
Draws
26%
Amadense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lagarto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Lagarto have won more games recently than Amadense.
  • Win probability leans Lagarto's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Lagarto Clean Sheet 15%
Amadense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagarto Amadense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 10 3
Losses 9 21
Goals Scored 1.3 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.17 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2018 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Amadense
2:0
Feb 19, 2017 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Amadense
1:2
Apr 16, 2016 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Amadense
4:0
Mar 12, 2016 Sergipano
Amadense vs Lagarto
1:1
Feb 11, 2016 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Amadense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagarto Compare

Top Goalscorer Daisson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moacir
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Amadense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagarto 84 / 100
Amadense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagarto Amadense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagarto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Amadense conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Lagarto scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Lagarto went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagarto VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
2.13 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagarto

(Home)
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1
Lagarto
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Amadense

(Away)
12 Oct
Estanciano EC
2 : 1
Amadense
05 Oct
Amadense
0 : 1
CS Maruinense
02 Oct
Botafogo ASF
3 : 0
Amadense
21 Sept
Amadense
3 : 0
Riachao
17 Sept
Amadense
0 : 1
AD Boquinhense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 7 1 1 15:3 22
2 Itabaiana 9 4 4 1 10:4 16
3 Confianca 9 4 3 2 12:9 15
4 Olimpico EC 9 3 6 0 15:8 15
5 Boca Junior 9 4 2 3 8:8 14
6 Lagarto 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
7 Dorense 9 2 5 2 7:6 11
8 Frei Paulistano 9 3 1 5 6:10 10
9 Amadense 9 1 1 7 5:21 4
10 Socorrense 9 0 2 7 8:18 2
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)
Promotion - Campeonato Sergipano 2018 (Second stage)